Blog
Mar 22nd, 2007: Tourney Notes
Mar 21st, 2007: Tourney Notes
Mar 19th, 2007: Tourney Notes and Team Comparisons
Mar 7th, 2008: Top 25: 14-1
Mar 7th, 2008: Top 25: 25-15
Mar 5th, 2008: Mid-Major Rankings
As usual, Friday destroyed my bracket pretty hard, as I flashed on all 4 of the Tampa upsets. I also missed St. Joe's and St. Mary's, leaving me only 23-32 for the first round. Still, I've lost only 2 Sweet Sixteen teams, and no Elite Eight, so it's not too bad. The best of the simulated brackets is 26-6 (including a perfect South), while the worst is 20-12.
Of the 20 international players in action, plus the 6 who watched from the bench, 12 advanced and 14 went out, leaving just 24 players in the tournament of the 57 who started.
3rd Star: Juan Palacios (Medellin, Colombia; Louisville), 5-5 FG, 13 Pts, 3 Rbs, 1 Ast, 1 Stl. Palacios played just 16 minutes, but took it to Boise St. pretty hard, and had the best performance of any international winner.
2nd Star: Andrew Ogilvy (Canberra, Australia; Vanderbilt), 7-15 FG, 18 Pts, 6 Rbs, 2 Asts. Not a great performance from Ogilvy, who comitted 4 turnovers, and he wasn't able to anchor any sort of defensive stand against Siena.
1st Star: Patrick Mills (Canberra, Australia; St. Mary's), 8-21 FG, 24 Pts, 2 Rbs, 5 Asts, 1 Stl. Patty Mills never got his shot in gear against Miami, and the Gaels paid for it with a first-round exit.
Saturday: 11 players are in action, including 3 for UCLA and 3 for Washington St. Mbah a Moute, if he plays, and Aron Baynes are the guys to watch.
My own personal bracket took three hits on the first day, while the best of the random simulation brackets missed just a single game (had Baylor d. Purdue). A couple of brackets have 5 errors, but it good news, all of them are beating Dick Vitale. Of course, if there's anything I've learned, it's that the first day means absolutley nothing to the brackets, it seems like i always do well on day 1, then collapse on day 2.
23 of the international players in the tournament were in action on Thursday, with another 7 watching their teams play from the bench. Of these 30, just 12 advanced (including 3 each from UCLA and Washington St.), which isn't that surprising considering how many are at small schools. The remaining 27 play tomorrow.
3rd Star: Shawn King (Bequia, St. Vincent; Oral Roberts), 4-9 FG, 10 Pts, 1 Rb, 1 Stl. It's odd to see a 6-10 centre with only 1 board, but it was thaat kind of night on the glass for the Golden Eagles. Still, a solid double digit showing for King puts him in the list
2nd Star: Jonathan Tavernari (San Bernarndo, Brazil; BYU), 6-15 FG, 15 Pts, 3 Rbs, 1 Ast, 1 Stl. Another solid effort in a losing cause, Tavernari was the Cougars' leading scorer, but struggled with his 3-point shot, hitting only 3-9.
1st Star: Aron Baynes (Cairns, Australia; Washington St.), 9-9 FG, 19 Pts, 8 Rbs, 1 Stl, 1 Blk. Easily the best game by an international today by a wide margin. Baynes was a force inside, and I'm looking forward to seeing him against ND.
Friday: Hasheem Thabeet, Patty Mills and Andrew Ogilvy will all be in action with good chances to win and move on.
Alright, so it's been a shitty couple of weeks, and I haven't contributed much, but here are some thoughts before the tourney starts.
My own bracket features Kansas as national champions, beating Louisville in the national semis and UCLA in the final. However, I have a horrible history with brackets, so it is quite likely that none of these teams will make the Final Four. For my own shits and giggles, I put my own bracket against 8 brackets I simulated, based on Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. These brackets mostly stuck to #1s, with the wackiest FF being Pitt, Duke, Kansas and Notre Dame, but not one has all #1s, which has a fairly low chance of occuring. While a couple have some major upsets in the early rounds, a few look as good as anything I could come up with, and I'm eager to see what they look like in a few weeks.
I've also prepared a team comparison tool that can, shockingly, be used to compare teams. While it is still pretty basic, I did generate some for tournament teams so let me know what you think.
Gonzaga - Indiana 31.0 - Around 30 typically represents a good comparison, with 70 abround average. Two teams that play at similar tempos, about average. They both score the largest part of their points inside, and both have their weakest point of their offense in coughing up turnovers. Defensively, neither suceed at forcing turnovers, but both are good interior defenders and defensive rebounders. Also, despite the major focus on Eric Gordon for Indiana, both are about equally experienced.
Butler - Drake 36.2 - What a surprise! Two slow, experienced, three-point shooting teams that don;t give up turnovers, but are vulnerable on the defensive boards. Perhaps all those times you here that Drake are this year's Butler aren't as cliche as the seem.
Temple - Arizona - 30.0 - This one seems inappropriate at first, as Temple are 3-point bombers, while Arizona are not, but there are a number of similarities. Their paces are pretty close, and defensively their profiles are nearly identical, since schedule is not taken into account. Neither forces turnovers, but their strengths are in lowering shooting percentages and not fouling shooters. Both are also effective shooters who hold on to the ball, while being terrible offensive rebounders.
Stanford - Texas A&M - Another one that makes some sense, and that I hope validates my system somewhat. Slow teams that are big and shoot few threes while focusing on defence. Thier profile in defense is very close as well, with a focus on decreasing field goal percentage by stopping 2-point scoring and dominating the defensive glass, while focusing very few turnovers.
Finally, I wanted to look at international players in the tournament. 57 players described with an international hometown by their team's websites are listed (there may be others that I have missed), and the majority of the impact players are big men, which is not surprising. Of these, there is a fairly even split, with 15 from Europe, 15 from Africa and 14 from North America and the Carribean. Canada is the most represented, with 10 players, while Australia has 6, Cameroon 5, and Nigeria and Brazil 4 each.
The Pre-tournament all-international team.
G: Patrick Mills (Canberra, Australia); St. Mary's (31.8 MPG. 14.5 PPG. 3.4 APG) - 1st Team All-WCC, WCC ROTY
G: Aaron Bruce (Horsham, Australia); Baylor (21.9 MPG, 8.7 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 2.0 APG) - HM All-Big XII
F: Jonathan Tavernari (San Bernardo, Brazil); BYU (27.5 MPG, 13.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG) - 3rd Team All-MWC
F: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Yaounde, Cameroon); UCLA (28.3 MPG, 8.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) - HM All-Pac-10
C: Andrew Ogilvy (Canberra, Australia); Vanderbilt ( 26.3 MPG, 17.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG) - HM All-SEC
Bench: G Max Paulhus Gosselin (Davidson), Julian Betko (Butler), F Ousmane Baro (Marquette), Juan Palacios (Louisville), C Hasheem Thabeet (UCONN), Shawn King (Oral Roberts), Aron Baynes (Washington St.), Scott Morrison (Portland St.)
Friday, March 7th, 2008
#14 (12): Butler (27-3, 16-2), 2292.5
The Bulldogs finished their regular season by more than doubling up Detroit, and now get a bye into the conference semi-finals. Their opponent in that game will likely be Illinois Chicago, and considering the tournament is being hosted at Hinkle Fieldhouse, you’d expect a conference championship to be a mere formality.
Last week: W v. #306 Detroit 65-31
This week: Horizon Tournament
#13 (11): Stanford (24-5, 13-4), 2298.8
A rather controversial loss in overtime saw UCLA take the Pac-10 title from the Cardinal, who did benefit from a win over Washington St. earlier in the week. Stanford’s business isn’t totally done, as they will travel to USC in their season finale.
Last week: W v. #29 Washington St. 60-53, L @ #3 UCLA 67-77
This week: S @ #45 Southern California
#12 (13): Georgetown (24-4, 14-3), 2302.5
Georgetown barely saw off Marquette to keep themselves tied with Louisville atop the conference, and their matchup with the Cardinals in the season finale should be a really fun game to determine the conference title.
Last week: W v. #26 Marquette 70-68
This week: S v. #8 Louisville
#11 (14): Davidson (23-6, 20-0), 2304.9
OK, so this whole Davidson thing has officially gotten far-fetched, as the Wildcats are on the verge of being a top 10 team after just crushing Georgia Southern on the road to finish their perfect conference regular season. To win a conference by 7 games is no small feat. The Wildcats will get #242 Wofford or #270 Western Carolina in the quarters, and then could have their toughest game against NC Greensboro in the semis.
Last week: W @ #130 Georgia Southern 89-69
This week: SoCon Tournament
#10 (6): Texas (25-5, 12-3), 2313.0
The Longhorns limped through the week, losing by three at Texas Tech and beating Nebraska by just 4. They will have to beat Oklahoma St. in their last game to maintain at least a share of the Big 12 title.
Last week: L @ #101 Texas Tech 80-83, W v. #90 Nebraska 70-66
This week: U v. #102 Oklahoma St.
#9 (5): Xavier (25-5, 13-2), 2316.2
Xavier dropped their last road game of the year at St. Joe’s, a win that has no real effect on the Musketeers, but greatly helps the Hawks. They should be able to beat a surprisingly good Richmond team in their last game before the A-10 tournament.
Last week: W v. #200 George Washington 66-56, L @ #61 Saint Joseph’s 66-71
This week: S v. #133 Richmond
#8 (9): Louisville (24-4, 14-2), 2331.7
The Cardinals have put together an excellent four-game run, beating Syracuse, Pitt, ND and Villanova, but their toughest test remains, as they travel to Georgetown to determine the Big East title. The earlier game between the two in Louisville was an 8-point Cardinals win, but this one is a potential toss-up.
Last week: W v. #84 Villanova 68-54
This week: S @ #12 Georgetown
#7 (8): Wisconsin (25-4, 15-2), 2338.3
Wisconsin easily won against Penn St., and should have similarly little problem against Northwestern in their season finale game. A win would make them the Big 10 champions, and it should be pretty routine.
Last week: W v. #179 Penn St. 77-41
This week: S @ #278 Northwestern
#6 (10): Kansas (27-3, 12-3), 2346.3
Kansas pulls a switch with Texas, moving up 4 spots and flirting with a return to the top 5. This was powered by two large wins over Kansas St. and Texas Tech. In order to earn the Big 12 title, though, they will have to brave a tough game at Texas A&M.
Last week: W v. #58 Kansas St. 88-74, W v. #101 Texas Tech
This week: S @ #46 Texas A&M
#5 (7): Duke (26-3, 13-2), 2351.2
The Blue Devils barely survived a trip to NC St., but then bounced back to handle Virginia easily. They will play in the best game of the weekend when they host UNC. A second win over the Tar Heels would not only make them ACC champs, but also a #1 seed in the tournament.
Last week: W @ #184 North Carolina St. 87-86, W @ #149 Virginia 86-70
This week: S v. #2 North Carolina
#4 (3): Tennessee (27-3, 13-2), 2362.1
Tennessee saw off a pair of bubble teams this week, though it was a fairly close pair of games that got them to seal the SEC title. Their final game against South Carolina should be a pretty easy win.
Last week: W v. #57 Kentucky 63-60, W @ #69 Florida 89-86
This week: U v. #182 South Carolina
#3 (4): UCLA (27-3, 15-2), 2371.0
UCLA have put together a very good run to rise into the top 3 for the first time in the season. This was accomplished by winning at Arizona, though just barely, and beating Stanford in overtime, though not without some controversy. They have a season finale against Cal that they should win easily.
Last week: W @ #59 Arizona 68-66, W v. #13 Stanford 77-67
This week: S v. #160 California
#2 (2): North Carolina (28-2, 13-2), 2387.6
As I predicted last week, UNC easily won the two games they played last week, and now look forward to Duke, with a win likely making them the #1 team in the country.
Last week: W @ #186 Boston College 90-80, W v. #100 Florida St. 90-77
This week: S @ #5 Duke
#1 (1): Memphis (29-1, 15-0), 2390.3
Memphis maintain the #1 ranking with a pair of pretty standard wins, but their last game will be a serious challenge, as they host UAB, the CUSA team that came closest to beating the Tigers this season. Either way, it’s unlikely the Tigers will drop too far before the tournament.
Last week: W @ #119 Southern Mississippi 76-67, W v. #292 Southern Methodist 72-55
This week: S v. #32 UAB
Friday, March 7th, 2008
#25 (NR): Western Kentucky (24-6, 16-2), 2243.0
The Hilltoppers return to the rankings for the first time since mid-February. They won their only game of the week, handling Florida Atlantic nicely, and sit as the #2 seed in the Sun Belt tournament. They’ll open against #110 North Texas, and then likely play #141 Arkansas Little Rock in the semis, with a game against USA looming in the final
Last week: W @ #171 Florida Atlantic 88-78
This week: SBC Tournament
#24 (15): Indiana (25-5, 14-3), 2243.6
The Hoosiers split their two games, but a near-30 point loss in Lansing was responsible for their nosedive. Their final game against Penn St. should be a walk, but they seem to have little chance of catching Wisconsin for a share of the regular-season title.
Last week: L @ #20 Michigan St. 74-103, W v. #103 Minnesota 69-55
This week: U @ #179 Penn St.
#23 (16): Connecticut (23-7, 12-5), 2243.6
UConn started their week really well, beating West Virginia at home to consolidate themselves, and keep their title hopes alive. A 9 point loss at Providence derailed these chances, though, and now they will have to beat Cincinnati in their season finale to even hold on to 4th place.
Last week: W v. #39 West Virginia 79-71, L @ #129 Providence 76-85
This week: S v. #163 Cincinnati
#22 (NR): South Alabama (25-5, 16-2), 2245.3
The other half of the joint Sun Belt championship make their first appearance of the year in the r rankings, after confirming their title with an easy win at Florida International. Their SBC tournament path includes games against #178 New Orleans, and likely #145 Middle Tennessee before a potential second rematch with Western Kentucky
Last week: W @ #273 Florida International 74-55
This week: SBC Tournament
#21 (NR): Virginia Commonwealth (22-6, 11-2), 2246.2
The mid-majors continue their rankings invasion, as the Rams get their monthly top 25 ranking. VCU played just once this week, handling William & Mary, and sealing the conference title by a full three games. The Rams will get a bye into the tournament quarterfinals, where they’ll play either #180 Hofstra or #237 Townson. A semifinal with #107 ODU, and a potential final with George Mason beckon.
Last week: W @ #225 William & Mary
This week: CAA Tournament
#20 (NR): Michigan St. (24-6, 12-5), 2251.4
Michigan St. may be a clear 4th in the Big Ten, but after their shellacking of Indiana, they are the second ranked Big Ten team. Their season-ending trip to Columbus probably won’t have a huge effect on the Spartans, but is a huge game for the bubble-trapped Buckeyes.
Last week: W v. #24 Indiana 103-74, W @ #167 Illinois 59-51
This week: U @ #97 Ohio St.
#19 (22): Robert Morris (26-6, 16-2), 2258.5
The rankings love the NEC champs, but that’s bound to happen when you win 14 in a row. Monmouth was a team that had beaten the Colonials in conference play, but fell fairly decisively in the tournament’s opening round. They’ll now play Mount St. Mary’s before facing a likely finale against #73 Wagner.
Last week: W @ #187 Long Island 71-68, W v. #319 Monmouth 64-50
This week: NEC Tournament
#18 (NR): Gonzaga (24-6, 13-1), 2259.8
Gonzaga pulled off a huge win over St. Mary’s to nose ahead in the WCC race, then crushed Santa Clara in their final game to seal the deal. The Zags will likely get Santa Clara again in the WCC semis, before a rubber match for the conference tournament title.
Last week: W v. #35 St. Mary’s 88-76, W v. #206 Santa Clara 88-54
This week: WCC Tournament
#17 (21): Brigham Young (24-6, 13-2), 2261.4
BYU clinched the regular season MWC championship with a couple of wins against lower level opposition, and look to finish the season on a good note when they travel to TCU. They’ll likely get a team they beat this week, Wyoming, in their MWC quarterfinal in the middle of next week.
Last week: W v. #162 Air Force 76-57, W v. #209 Wyoming 78-61
This week: S @ #202 Texas Christian
#16 (17): Drake (25-4, 15-3), 2268.8
The Bulldogs won their last game of the season, and ended up MVC champions by 2 games. They’ll play #161 Indiana St. in the quarterfinals of the tournament, and then set up for a semifinal game with a #68 Creighton team that they’ve beaten twice already
Last week: W v. #245 Wichita St. 73-63
This week: MVC Tournament
#15 (18): Notre Dame (23-6, 13-4), 2272.7
Notre Dame are fortunate to benefit from a pretty week schedule in the last two weeks of the season, and should comfortably find themselves in a tie for second in the Big East.
Last week: W @ #193 DePaul 98-91, W v. #213 St. John’s 68-55
This week: S @ #222 South Florida
Wednesday, March 5th, 2008
Again: Teams in the top 25 of the AP or ESPN/USA Today poll won't be counted, though I will mention them at the end.
1. Robert Morris – Northeastern (25-6, 16-2), (#19, #7 MM, LW #12 MM)
The Colonials moved up hugely thanks to a convincing win against third place team Sacred Heart, and have sealed themselves a regular season title. They open their conference tournament against the 8 seed from Monmouth. The only teams to beat them in the regular season were St. Francis (PA), who didn’t qualify, and Sacred Heart, who they beat solidly. The Boston College win isn’t very strong, and they have no other non-conference record, so they’ll need to win the tournament.
Last week: W @ #124 Sacred Heart 82-69, W @ #182 Long Island 71-68
This week: NEC Tournament
2. Virginia Commonwealth – Colonial (23-6, 15-3), (#21, #9 MM, LW #10 MM)
VCU did their business pretty handily in their last two games to win the conference title by a full three games. They earn a bye into the quarterfinals of the CAA tourney, and are slated to face Old Dominion in the semis. They should be set for the tourney even with a loss, especially since two of their three losses were by a single point, and their other loss was against #2 George Mason, who they wouldn’t meet until the final.
Last week: W v. #121 NC Wilmington 72-58, S @ #223 William & Mary 54-43
This week: CAA Tournament
3. South Alabama – Sun Belt (25-5, 16-2), (#23, #10 MM, LW #11 MM)
Due to the divisional schedule, USA earn the 1 seed and WKU earn only the 3, despite tying for the conference title. Anything less than a third rematch in the final would be a disappointment, but a game with one of the only teams that beat the Jaguars, Middle Tennessee, potentially looming in the quarters, have to be careful. Still, home court advantage should help.
Last week: W v. #190 New Orleans 81-61, W @ #251 Florida International 74-55
This week: SBC Tournament
4. Western Kentucky – Sun Belt (24-6, 16-2), (#24, #11 MM, LW #14 MM)
WKU also went perfect to earn themselves a share of the regular-season title, despite South Alabama sweeping them in the regular season. Any loss before the final will knock them out, but they shouldn’t be put under too much pressure.
Last week: W @ #251 Florida International 69-54, W @ #191 Florida Atlantic 88-78
This week: SBC Tournament
5. New Mexico – Mountain West (23-7, 10-5), (#31, #12 MM, LW #15 MM)
After losing a game at home to UNLV, the Lobos rebounded strongly by beating BYU, all but locking up third place and putting themselves in much better tournament position. They will likely end up with a game against UNLV again in the conference semis, and another win there would likely lock them into the tournament.
Last week: W v. #40 Nevada Las Vegas 59-45
This week: S @ #327 Colorado St.
6. Kent St. – Mid-American (24-6, 12-3), (#33, #13 MM, LW #7 MM)
Kent erased all their good graces from the St. Mary’s win by losing at a below .500 Bowling Green team, though they did rebound by beating Miami. Their first order of business will be to secure the regular season title, but that won’t be easy, as they travel to an Akron team that are only 1 game behind. If htye win there, they will likely have to survive a semifinal game against an Ohio team that beat them to make the championship game.
Last week: L @ #226 Bowling Green 83-89, W v. #128 Miami OH 50-39
This week: S @ #69 Akron
7. UAB – Conference USA (21-8, 11-3), (#34, #14 MM, LW #20 MM)
UAB had a solid week, seeing off UTEP and Tulane pretty easily, but the difficulty level will ramp up significantly this week, as they host a decent Tulsa team and travel to Memphis. A win at the CUSA leaders would be an earth-shattering one, but it seems highly unlikely.
Last week: W @ #166 Texas El Paso 88-81, W v. #194 Tulane 69-44
This week: W v. #78 Tulsa, S @ #2 Memphis
8. St. Mary’s – West Coast (25-5, 12-2), (#35, #15 MM, LW #13 MM)
The Gaels dropped out of the polls for the first time in a while, after losing at Gonzaga to split the season series. They will strongly benefit from the WCC’s system that will earn them an automatic semifinal spot, but having to play San Diego, the only other team to beat them in conference, and in San Diego, no less, could potentially give them problems.
Last week: L @ #18 Gonzaga 76-88, W @ #299 Portland 64-50
This week: WCC Tournament
9. Illinois St. – Missouri Valley (22-8, 13-5), (#36, #16 MM, LW #25 MM)
The Redbirds had a great finish to conference play, coming up with big wins over Creighton and Southern Illinois, and have themselves in the tournament by my reckoning. However, this hinges on a good performance in the tournament, and probably will require another win over the Salukis in the semifinals.
Last week: W v. #67 Creighton 68-54, W @ #58 Southern Illinois 57-49
This week: MVC Tournament
10. Stephen F. Austin – Southland (23-4, 11-3), (#37, #17 MM, LW #8 MM)
The rankings have loved the Lumberjacks, but they really hurt themselves by losing to Texas Arlington this week, especially after Lamar dropped a game to let them back into the race. They need to hold in their final two games, against some weak opposition.
Last week: W @ #256 Texas St. 74-70, L v. #163 Texas Arlington 65-75
This week: W v. #278 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, S @ #235 Texas San Antonio
11. Cornell – Ivy League (20-5, 12-0), (#38, #18 MM, LW #17 MM)
12. Nevada Las Vegas – Mountain West (22-7, 11-4), (#40, #19 MM, LW #16 MM)
13. IUPUI – Summit (24-6, 15-3), (#41, #20 MM, LW #24 MM)
14. Portland St. – Big Sky (21-9, 14-2), (#42, #21 MM, LW NR)
15. Houston – Conference USA (21-7, 10-4), (#43, #22 MM, LW #18 MM)
16. Siena – MAAC (19-10, 13-5), (#44, #23 MM, LW NR)
17. Massachusetts – Atlantic 10 (19-9, 8-6), (#45, #24 MM, LW NR)
18. Rider – MAAC (21-9, 13-5), (#47, #25 MM, LW NR)
Not included because in polls:
Memphis – Conference USA (28-1, 14-0), (#2, #1 MM (LW #1 MM), #2 AP, #3 ESPN)
Xavier – Atlantic 10 (25-4, 13-1), (#6, #2 MM (LW #2 MM), #8 AP, #11 ESPN)
Davidson – Southern (23-6, 20-0), (#12, #3 MM (LW #4 MM), #25 AP)
Butler – Horizon (27-3, 16-2), (#14, #4 MM (LW #3 MM), #14 AP, #12 ESPN)
Drake – Missouri Valley (25-4, 15-3), (#16, #5 MM (LW #5 MM), #20 AP, #21 ESPN)
Gonzaga – West Coast (24-6, 13-1), (#18, #6 MM (LW #9 MM), #22 AP, #23 ESPN)
Brigham Young – Mountain West (13-6, 12-2), (#20, #8 MM (LW #6 MM), #25 ESPN)
Dropped out: Saint Joseph’s (17-10, 8-6), Cal St. Fullerton (20-8, 11-4), Oral Roberts (21-8, 16-2), Southern Illinois (17-13, 11-7)