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Monday, December 31st, 2007
The last game of the year for 2007 features #61 Kansas St. travelling to face #53 Xavier. Xavier are 9-3, but after back-to-back losses to Arizona St. and Tennessee, they dropped from the ranks of the top 25, and this is a key game for the Musketeers to regain some momentum. Kansas St. are also 8-3, but they don’t have any really impressive wins, with their best result coming against Cal.
This will be an interesting battle of pace, as Xavier take a slower, more deliberate approach, while Kansas St. are a fast-paced, running team. Xavier are a very efficient offense, holding onto the ball well (37th) and pulling down a lot of their misses (31st). They are strongest shooting from the inside (53%), and are also very strong from the line (76%). Kansas St. are a formidable defensive team though, especially inside (25th), and at forcing turnovers (45th). The main difference may be on the other side of the ball, however. The Wildcats really struggle with their shooting, at only 48.2% eFG, and a disastrous 29% from three. Michael Beasley is critical for their strong offensive rebounding (5th), but this is their only real strength offensively. Xavier are good defending shots (61st deFG%), and may be able to fight off the Wildcats inside with their defensive rebounding (26th).
I will take the opportunity to talk about Michael Beasley, which is something I haven’t done yet. Despite the struggles of his team, Beasley might very well be the nation’s best player so far this year. He’s had double-digit points and rebounds in every game to date, and shoots 56% from the field. He also averages a couple of blocks and a steal per game, significantly altering opponents’ offensive approach. For Xavier, I’m going to talk about sophomore centre Jason Love. Love rarely reaches twenty minutes a game, but is a force on the offensive glass, one of the best per minute in the nation. In the last three games he’s had almost 6 offensive boards in only 20 minutes on average. I’m very interested to see how he’ll matchup with Beasley on the boards, and whether they turn to him more or less against Beasley.
I don’t think that Kansas St. has the scoring ability to go to Xavier and win, so I’ll take the Musketeers to win.
Monday, December 31st, 2007
UNLV 81, Minnesota 64 @ Las Vegas, NV
So we definitely got an idea of just how good Minnesota really is from this game. I knew their schedule was weak, but I thought that Tubby Smith would be able to get them to compete well. It never really happened, as the Gophers were pretty much crushed, never getting within single digits in the second half. Minnesota was simply unable to force turnovers from the Rebels, only 10 all game, and the normally poor shooting UNLV hit 50% from 3, which was a disaster for Minnesota. In contrast, the Gophers shot only 43% from inside the arc, and also lost the turnover battle. Minnesota was able to take advantage of UNLV’s weakness on the defensive boards, pulling down 30% of their misses, but their shooting was just too poor to compensate for this.
Dan Coleman had a decent game, but shot only 9 times, his second lowest of the season. He hit 5 of those shots, and pulled down 8 boards, but wasn’t the force he had been in games previous. Wink Adams was the game’s top scorer with 20 points. He shot 5-10 from the field and 8-9 from the free-throw line, while also having 5 rebounds and a season-high 7 assists.
So it looks like Minnesota were the result of a weak schedule, and aren’t as good as they seemed. It’ll be interesting to see where they fit in the scheme of things in the Big Ten.
Top 25 teams:
#1 North Carolina 90, Valparaiso 58 @ Chapel Hill, NC
UNLV 81, #19 Minnesota 64 @ Las Vegas, NV
UNC crushed a decent Valpo team, and in unranked results, Mississippi St. beat Missouri and a 4-7 Tennessee St. team travelled to Champaign and shocked Illinois.
Sunday, December 30th, 2007
Tonight’s game of the day features #19 Minnesota travelling to #73 UNLV in the Duel in the Desert. UNLV were already featured for their 3 point loss to Arizona, and while they haven’t recorded any really solid wins since then, they’re still hanging around the top 100. Minnesota have a total of 1 vote in both polls, and their 10-1 record is a fairly weak looking one, with no marquee wins at all, and a heavy loss at Florida St. This game with UNLV will be their second biggest test of the year, and give us a good feeling at how good they really are going in to Big Ten play.
As mentioned earlier (Dec. 19th), UNLV are very good at holding on to the ball (11th), but struggle on the offensive glass (228th) and shooting, especially from three (258th eFG%, 283rd 3P%). Minnesota are the best team in the nation at forcing turnovers, so it’ll be interesting to see if they disrupt the Rebels. They are also excellent shot defenders (44th deFG%), especially from behind the arc (29th), given UNLV’s propensity to take shots from three (71st 3PA/FGA), this could bode quite badly for the UNLV attack. Minnesota’s offense are quite good shooters (41st eFG%), and also do a good job of crashing the offensive glass (23rd). UNLV should trouble the Gophers shooters (17th deFG%) especially from the perimeter (3rd 3P%). They are quite weak on the defensive glass though (217th), and Minnesota should be able to take advantage of this.
Senior forward Dan Coleman is the Golden Gophers’ best player, especially in their last 6 games, where he is averaging almost 20 PPG. He’s a 53% shooter who is also good for about 6 rebounds, and us capable of getting blocks and aggressively pushing for steals (including a 6 steal game against Santa Clara that really colours his season average. For UNLV, I’ll talk about junior guard Wink Adams. Adams has scored in double digits in all but one of the Rebel’s games. While he’s not a great shooter from the field, only 41%, his 91% free throw shooting shows that he has a good touch with the shot, and I may be a matter of him making better selections or getting more help. He also creates 2 steals a game, and three assists while maintaining a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Minnesota haven’t proven themselves against opposition as good as UNLV, but seem to have an advantageous matchup, and I think they’ll grab a big road win.
Sunday, December 30th, 2007
Illinois St. 80, Creighton 67 @ Omaha, NE
The Missouri Valley opened conference play this weekend, and every game had the road team winning, though this was perhaps the largest upset of the bunch. Illinois St. entered at 8-3, with losses to Indiana, Kent St. and Eastern Michigan, while Creighton was 9-1, with their only loss to Xavier. The Jays were unable to stop the shooting of the Redbirds at all, with Illinois St. shooting 52% from the field and 58% eFG. This was well above the 45% shooting of Creighton. Illinois St. also got to the line almost twice the number of times Creighton did, but shot just 55%, wasting that advantage somewhat.
Player of the Game: ILST SR C Levi Dyer, 7-12 FG, 5-7 3P, 3 Rbs, 20 Pts
Game of the Night:
Dayton managed to light up the Panthers, and while I projected a victory, I didn’t expect it to be quite so decisive. The Panthers shot a huge number of three pointers, and were disastrous at making them. In their last two games, Pitt are an abysmal 6-44 from three, and they will need to buckle down and be more selective with their shots from now on. They didn’t commit many turnovers, but had a pretty disappointing performance on the offensive boards, likely because of DeJuan Blair’s foul trouble. For their part, Dayton shot very well, 52% from the field and 6-12 on threes, while also getting to the line very effectively, and making free throws at an 80% pace. Dayton were about season average in all the offensive categories, and Pitt’s defense were simply not able to disturb their offensive flow.
Sam Young really struggled for Pitt. He was the leading scorer with 15 points, but committed 4 turnovers, and shot less than 30%. Brian Roberts was the game’s dominant figure and top scorer. He shot 10-17 from the field, including 5-8 from three, and also contributed with 5 assists to only 1 turnover.
Top 25 teams:
#4 Kansas 86, Yale 53 @ Lawrence, KS
#22 Oklahoma 88, #5 West Virginia 82 @ Morgantown, WV
#7 Memphis 76, Arizona 63 @ Memphis, TN
#8 Rhode Island 85, Georgia Southern 80 @ Corpus Christi, TX
#9 Michigan St. 93, Wisconsin Green Bay 75 @ Lansing, MI
#10 Stanford 55, Fresno St. 48 @ Stanford, CA
Winthrop 76, #12 Miami FL 70 @ Sunrise, FL
Dayton 80, #13 Pittsburgh 55 @ Dayton, OH
#23 Wisconsin 67, #14 Texas 66 @ Austin, TX
#15 Vanderbilt 92, Tennessee Martin 85 @ Nashville, TN
#16 UCLA 76, UC Davis 48 @ Los Angeles
#17 Texas A&M 83, Florida A&M 54 @ College Station, TX
#18 Tennessee 82, Gonzaga 72 @ Seattle, WA
#19 Minnesota 83, Kennesaw St. 66 @ Las Vegas, NV
#21 Indiana 97, Chicago St. 59 @ Bloomington, IN
#24 Villanova 71, La Salle 58 @ Villanova, PA
#25 St. Mary's 69, Cal St. Fullerton 59 @ Moraga, CA
Pitt and Miami FL both dropped out of the ranks of the undefeated, while Texas and West Virginia also took losses, though neither was too hurt by them.
Saturday, December 29th, 2007
There are a few really fascinating games today, but the one that is the Game of the Day features #13 Pittsburgh, who played in a game of the day against Duke, travelling to face #28 Dayton. Pitt are 11-0, and addressed their problem of lacking a marquee win with that Duke game, while Dayton are 10-1, with wins over Louisville, Holy Cross and Miami OH, with their only loss at George Mason. This is Dayton’s last chance for a marquee resume win before conference play.
Unlike the Duke game, this is much more of a match in tempos, as both teams are fairly slow playing. Pitt is still one of the best offenses in the nation, making shots inside with regularity (61st 2P%, 277th 3PA/FGA), while also dominating the offensive glass and holding onto the ball (6th, 45th). Dayton have a solid defense, that primarily has a focus on defending the interior, and may be able to control Pitt there. They are solid at defending inside shots (83rd 2P%), and have faced mostly opponents who have shot from inside (337th 3PA/FGA). They are also excellent defensive rebounders, though this will be tested (14th). The Dayton offense does a lot well but not much great. They are good shooters, especially from 3 (75th eFG%, 30th 3P%), and can hold the ball and get offensive boards (76th, 70th). Their outside shooting may be due to more discerning shot selection from the perimeter, as most of their shots come from inside (312th 3PA/FGA). Pitt are solid defenders, especially on the perimeter (9th), though that won’t affect Dayton as much as other teams. They can also grab defensive rebounds and don’t allow opponents to the free throw line (71st, 15th).
Last time I talked about Pitt, I discussed DeJuan Blair, so today I’ll turn to junior Sam Young. Young was critical in the win over Duke, and has scored at least 12 points in every game of the year so far. He’s a 56% shooter from the field and a 50% shooter from 3. Young is a very solid defensive rebounder, grabbing around 7 boards a game, and also contributes a steal-and-a-half and a block per game. Senior guard Brian Roberts is key for Dayton, and is one of the best offensive players in the A10, he’s a 49% shooter, and also hits 48% of his threes, and he is also the dominant three-point shooter on the Flyers, taking more than 40% of the total team threes. He is also an excellent ball mover, at 4-and-a-half assists per game, while also having a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
I think that home court advantage will be enough for the Flyers to barely upset Pitt, whose perimeter defense won’t help them much against the interior focus of the Flyers.
Saturday, December 29th, 2007
Niagara 73, Morgan St. 53 @ Santa Clara, CA
A big neutral-court win for the Purple Eagles, who move to 7-3 as they prepare for conference play to start in earnest. The defensive domination by Niagara was what won them this game, as they did a decent job forcing turnovers, while also holding Morgan St. to just 35% shooting, and only 38.2 eFG%. Niagara also dominated the defensive glass, and held the turnover battle close enough that the number of shots was about equal. Niagara wasn’t really brilliant offensively, but shooting 48% from the field was enough to ease to the win.
Player of the Game: NIAG SR G Stanley Hodge, 7-8 FG, 8 Rbs, 3 Asts, 2 Stls, 17 Pts
Game of the Night:
Sam Houston led for most of the first half, but the Aztecs came back in the second, and the game was back and forth most of the rest of the way. SDSU managed to force OT, and then pulled it out with a late score and a Maverick miss. The Bearkats shot 49% from the field for their best shooting performance against a D1 opponent all year. However, as expected the Aztecs managed to force a load of turnovers and dominate the defensive glass, allowing Sam Houston only 3 offensive boards all game. Sam Houston’s outside defense was excellent, holding SDSU to only 6-24 three-point shooting. However, the Aztecs took advantage of other weaknesses, doing a great job on the offensive glass and getting more steals than turnovers.
Ryan Bright really struggled offensively for the Bearkats, shooting just 2-8 from the field and 1-5 from the free throw line. While he did get 9 boards and 2 steals, he also committed 5 turnovers, and really didn’t help the Bearkats much. Bully White, on the other hand, was a very solid performer for the Aztecs, as he shot 6-10 and pulled down 6 boards. The team’s best player was junior forward Lorenzo Wade, who shot 8-17 from the field while also putting up 4 assists and 4 steals, along with a team high 23 points.
Top 25 teams:
#2 Washington St. 67, North Carolina A&T 34 @ Pullman, WA
#5 Butler 57, Southern Illinois 55 @ Carbondale, IL
#9 Mississippi 78, Southern Mississippi 58 @ Oxford, MS
#13 Rhode Island 92, Eastern Michigan 75 @ South Padre Island, TX
The Top 25 teams all won, though Butler did it only by the skin of their teeth, needing a buzzer-beating, long-distance three to hold off the Salukis.
Friday, December 28th, 2007
#14 (2): Texas (11-1), 2183.2
Their only game of the week was the loss to Michigan St., but they get a chance for revenge against the Big 10 with a game against Wisconsin this week. With three more tough games before they reach conference play, there’s no telling just where this team could be ranked by then.
Last week: L v. #7 Michigan St. (N) 72-78
This week: S v. #22 Wisconsin, W v. #123 Texas Christian
#13 (12): Rhode Island (11-1), 2188.5
The Rams have played just one game in the last three weeks, beating Hofstra last week, but have two easy wins this week that could lead them back into the top 10.
Last week: W v. #242 Hofstra 88-69
This week: F v. #177 Eastern Michigan (N), W v. #198 Fairleigh Dickinson
#12 (8): Pittsburgh (11-0), 2191.0
Pitt lost some of their momentum from the Duke win, taking the week off, and they resume with a very difficult game on Saturday at Dayton.
Last week: None
This week: S @ #26 Dayton, W v. #68 Lafayette
#11 (11): Miami FL (12-0), 2192.1
Miami holds pace with an easy win over North Carolina A&T, and will play twice this week, though neither should pose much of a problem as they close up non-conference play.
Last week: W v. #288 North Carolina A&T 95-64
This week: S v. #138 Winthrop (N), W v. #257 Pennsylvania
#10 (7): Duke (10-1), 2194.3
Duke dropped due to taking last week off, and since they’ll be taking this week off too, expect them to continue to drop.
Last week: None
This week: None
#9 (15): Mississippi (11-0), 2195.5
Running solidly through the Puerto Rico tournament resulted in them making a strong move up the rankings, and with two fairly easy games coming up, they should go into SEC play at 13-0.
Last week: W v. #234 La Salle (N) 84-77, W v. #25 Clemson (N) 85-82
This week: F v. #133 Southern Mississippi, W v. #290 Alabama A&M
#8 (10): Stanford (10-1), 2195.8
The 1-point win over Texas Tech was hard-fought, but doesn’t do a whole lo to help the Cardinal’s ranking, as they don’t really move. Starting conference play against UCLA this week will be interesting to watch, and will give us an immediate feeling for Stanford’s place in the Pac-10.
Last week: W v. #127 Texas Tech (N) 62-61
This week: S v. #135 Fresno St., R v. #16 UCLA
#7 (13): Michigan St. (11-1), 2201.4
The 6-point win on a neutral floor over Texas wqas a huge boost for the Spartans, pushing them into the top 10 for the first time in the season. They’ll close out their non-conference schedule on Saturday, then take the rest of the week off.
Last week: W v. #14 Texas (N) 78-72
This week: S v. #119 Wisconsin Green Bay
#6 (9): Memphis (10-0), 2205.4
The home crushing of Georgetown really solidified the Tigers place as a top 10 school, and with a game against Arizona this week the team might be able to crack the top 5.
Last week: W v. #31 Georgetown 85-71
This week: S v. #29 Arizona, R v. #80 Siena
#5 (10): Butler (11-1, 1-1), 2110.4
The Bulldogs easily won their game this week, and have a dangerous game coming up against Southern Illinois. This game doesn’t provide much opportunity for Butler to rise, even as an away game, but a loss could significantly drop them.
Last week: W @ #293 Florida Gulf Coast 78-66
This week: S @ #157 Southern Illinois
#4 (6): West Virginia (10-1), 2210.6
The Mountaineers demolished Canisius in their only game of the week, but this week have two tough games against Oklahoma and at Notre Dame to open the Big East season. Id they can emerge unscathed, I’ll be much more convinced that they deserve this ranking.
Last week: W @ #314 Canisius 77-54
This week: S v. #21 Oklahoma, R @ #41 Notre Dame
#3 (4): Kansas (12-0), 2215.5
Kansas crushed a decent Miami of Ohio tteam last week, but with only a game against Yale this week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a slight drop.
Last week: W v. #130 Miami OH 78-54
This week: S v. #231 Yale
#2 (3): Washington St. (11-0), 2219.0
The Cougars have one more easy game after breezing through the week, until they start Pac-10 play with a home game against Washington.
Last week: W @ #316 Idaho St. 75-45
This week: F v. #288 North Carolina A&T
#1 (1): North Carolina (12-0), 2266.7
The distance between anyone else and North Carolina is absurd. Crushing two solid teams this week really moved them up, and with two more decent teams coming to Chapel Hill this week, expect the Tar Heels to just get more distant.
Last week: W v. #51 UC Santa Barbara 105-70, W v. #103 Nevada 106-70
This week: U v. #43 Valparaiso, W v. #30 Kent St.
Friday, December 28th, 2007
#25 (21): Clemson (10-1), 2149.1
Clemson won the first two of their games in Puerto Rico, but drop somewhat thanks to a three-point loss to Mississippi. They have another matchup with an SEC opponent before leaping into ACC play.
Last week: W v. #238 DePaul(N) 90-74, L v. #9 Mississippi 85-82
This week: S v. #227 Samford, T @ #55 Alabama
#24 (NR): Creighton (9-1), 2149.3
The Jays enter the rankings for the first time this season on the back of a solid win over Arkansas Little Rock. They don’t have any really strong non-conference wins, but their only loss is to Xavier, which doesn’t look bad. The Valley schedule starts this week for them, and they’ll need a good run to build a strong enough resume to get a potential at-large bid.
Last week: W v. #82 Arkansas Little Rock 80-61
This week: S v. #76 Illinois St., W @ #202 Indiana St.
#23 (NR): Villanova (9-1), 2152.2
Their only loss was by a single point on a neutral floor to NC St., but their ranking suffers because they haven’t beaten anyone notable at all. Beating George Mason in late November is probably their best win, so they’ll need a big in-conference performance to book a spot in March.
Last week: W v. #209 Columbia 72-56
This week: R @ #238 DePaul
#22 (NR): Wisconsin (9-2), 2154.1
The Badgers also make their season debut in the top 25, after a really solid win against Valparaiso, and have a chance to make a huge national splash at Texas on Saturday, before they begin conference play mid-week.
Last week: W v. #43 Valparaiso 68-58
This week: S @ #14 Texas, W @ #262 Michigan
#21 (20): Oklahoma (9-3), 2154.6
It’s a tribute to holiday inactivity that an off week fails to drop the Sooners more than a single spot in the rankings. They still have a couple of weeks until conference play begins, but only one last serious test on Saturday at West Virginia.
Last week: None
This week: S @ #4 West Virginia
#20 (22): Indiana (10-1), 2158.6
They won their 6th straight game, but beating Coppin St., and Chicago St., as they will do this week, is not exactly good warm-up for Big Ten play (though the way Michigan has played, maybe it is)
Last week: W v. #328 Coppin St. 73-46
This week: S v. #315 Chicago St., W @ #199 Iowa
#19 (NR): New Mexico (12-2), 2162.6
The Lobos are the highest ranked multi-loss team, though how wins over Hawaii and Weber St. got them there is beyond me. UTEP are a really good opponent, though, and may be enough to knock New Mexico back out of the top 25.
Last week: W v. #279 Weber St. 62-32, @ #287 Hawaii 79-69
This week: W @ #73 Texas El Paso
#18 (25): Tennessee (11-1), 2169.0
Tennessee don’t get as large a bump as beating Xavier would have given them before the Arizona St. game, but still move up nicely, and have a great chance to add to that with a game against Gonzaga this week.
Last week: W @ #54 Xavier 82-75
This week: S v. #40 Gonzaga (N)
#17 (18): Texas A&M (11-1), 2172.1
The Aggies single win this week basically holds them in place. This is a difficult team to get a real feel for for me, and I am fascinated to see how they start in Big 12 play. They should move up with a couple of easy wins this week.
Last week: W v. #244 UC Irvine 88-66
This week: S v. #301 Florida A&M, M v. #304 Rice
#16 (19): UCLA (11-1), 2174.8
Trailed Michigan at the half, but came back to crush them. Add one more win to their record this week before they start conference play with one of the most difficult games of the Pac-10 season at Stanford.
Last week: W @ #262 Michigan 69-54
This week: S v. #299 UC Davis, R @ #8 Stanford
#15 (14): Vanderbilt (11-0), 2180.0
The second lowest ranked undefeated team in the nation carried this on by beating Tennessee St., but now will face a tough schedule in terms of time, as they will play 4 games in just 7 days starting Saturday to lead into conference play. Only the finale against UMass should be trouble, but it’s possible that the pure frequency of games will cause them trouble.
Last week: W v. #284 Tennessee St. 83-74
This week: S v. #268 Tennessee Martin, M v. #162 Iona, R v. #304 Rice
Friday, December 28th, 2007
Today’s game of the day features an undefeated team making a difficult road trip, but you won’t hear much about it in major sports news media, as #62 Sam Houston St. travel to #61 San Diego St. The Aztecs are 9-3, and coming off a pretty decisive loss at Arizona, and though they don’t have any serious wins, their losses aren’t too bad, though the Cal loss may not be that strong. For their part, Sam Houston St. are an undefeated 10-0, but four of those wins are over non-D1 teams. The wins over St. Louis, Texas Tech and Fresno St. are decent, showing that this is a team that can go against high-major and high-mid-major opponents.
The Bearkats are a disastrous offensive team, among the worst in the entire country. They are terrible free-throw shooters (328th), and haven’t fared much better from the field (226th eFG%). They are also unable to hold onto the ball (285th), and get dominated on the offensive glass (255th), which plays into the strength of a solid defensive Aztec team, who force turnovers and pull down opponent’s misses (47th, 36th). Sam Houston makes it up on the defensive end, where they are one of the best in the nation. They have a lock-down perimeter defensive game (2nd d3P%), and are the best defensive rebounding team in the nation. They do not force turnovers at all though (272nd), so they need to pull down boards to offset that possession disadvantage. The Aztecs’ game involves good 3-point shooting (63rd), but don’t have any other real specific strength. They don’t shoot a ton of threes (280th 3PA/FGA), but the Bearkats inside D is good enough that this shouldn’t cause a real problem.
A critical player for Sam Houston is senior guard Ryan Bright. Bright has put up 6 double-doubles so far this year, and shoots 47%, which is top-class for this roster, while grabbing 11 boards a game, 7th in the nation, and contributing three-and-a-half assists, a steal and a block the game. Freshman forward Billy White has a size advantage on Bright, and may be able to use this to continue his 60% shooting, and his 6 boards and 2 steals a game.
I think that Sam Houston won’t be strong enough offensively to beat the Aztecs, and will drop out of the running for an undefeated season.
Friday, December 28th, 2007
North Carolina St. 79, Seton Hall 73 @ East Rutherford, NJ
The Pirates dominated in terms of number of possessions, as they hauled up 15 more shots than NC State while also winning the turnover battle. However, they made poor use of those shots, shooting only 42% from the field and less than one of every four threes. NC State, on the other hand, played with deadly efficiency, making an absurd 65% of their shots from inside the arc. The Wolfpack committed 7 more turnovers than Seton Hall, as mentioned above, but dominated on the glass, both in total numbers and in percentages. While I didn’t see the game, the combination of good offensive rebounding and a high 2P% suggests that NC State earned a lot of put-backs and easy second-chance scores. It was this inside play that led to the NC State victory.
Player of the Game: NCST JR G Courtney Fells, 7-10 FG, 8 Rebs, 17 Pts
Top 25 teams:
#1 North Carolina 106, Nevada 70 @ Chapel Hill, NC
Thursday, December 27th, 2007
Between Christmas, redoing the website and reformatting my computer I haven’t had much of a chance to do much of any work, but here’s the Mid Major Rankings for this week. I’ll try to get the Top 25 up as usual tomorrow.
Mid Major Rankings
Again: Teams in the top 25 of the AP or ESPN/USA Today poll won't be counted, though I will mention them at the end.
1. Creighton- Missouri Valley (9-1), (#23, #4 MM, LW #18 MM)
While a lot of teams didn’t play much during the week, Creighton did put together a couple of wins during the week, including a solid one over a decent Arkansas-Little Rock team. They look to have one of the better teams in the Valley, and could be on a course for a tournament bid, as they enter conference play.
Last week: W v. #340 North Carolina Central 88-54, W v. #83 Arkansas Little Rock 80-61
This week: S v. #77 Illinois St., W @ #202 Indiana St.
2. Dayton – Atlantic 10 (10-1), (#25, #5 MM, LW #13 MM)
Dayton also put together a pair of solid wins this week, and have a chance to prove themselves as a top class team when they host Pitt later this week, and have two good mid-major games against Akron and Rhode Island coming up.
Last week: W v. #115 American 63-56, W v. #181 Loyola MD 91-74
This week: S v. #12 Pittsburgh, W v. #57 Akron
3. Massachusetts – Atlantic 10 (9-2), (#26, #6 MM, LW #11 MM)
UMass played only a single game during the week, but an almost 30 point win at home over Central Connecticut did move them up somewhat. They have a few very interesting games with Houston, Vandy and St. Joseph’s coming up, so we’ll see just how they prove themselves.
Last week: W v. #230 Central Connecticut 79-55
This week: S v. #255 Boston University
4. New Mexico – Mountain West (10-2), (#29, #8 MM, LW #13 MM)
New Mexico put together a solid week, earning a revenge win against NMSU and absolutely crushing Weber St, but now start out on a three game road trip leading into conference play.
Last week: W v. #218 New Mexico St. 83-69, W v. #279 Weber St. 62-32
This week: R @ #271 Hawaii
5. Kent St. – Mid-American (9-2), (#30, #9 MM, LW #7 MM)
They showed some severe rust in edging IUPU Fort Wayne at home, but hope to cause some trouble for North Carolina next week, as they prepare for MAC play.
Last week: W v. #267 IUPU Fort Wayne 72-70
This week: S v. #140 Cleveland St.
6. St. Mary’s – West Coast (9-1), (#32, #10 MM, LW NR)
7. Houston – Conference USA (10-1), (#37, #11 MM, LW #8 MM)
8. Drake – Missouri Valley (9-1), (#38, #12 MM, LW #9 MM)
9. Gonzaga - West Coast (9-3), (#40, #13 MM, LW #4 MM)
10. Valparaiso – Horizon (10-2, 2-0), (#43, #14 MM, LW #5 MM)
11. Stephen F. Austin – Southland (9-1), (#47, #15 MM, LW #15 MM)
12. Virginia Commonwealth – Colonial (8-3, 1-0), (#48, #16 MM, LW NR)
13. UC Santa Barbara – Big West (10-2), (#50, #17 MM, LW #16 MM)
14. Xavier – Atlantic 10 (8-3), (#53, #18 MM, LW #10 MM)
15. Duquesne – Atlantic 10 (7-3), (#56, #19 MM, LW #24 MM)
16. Akron – Mid-American (9-2), (#57, #20 MM, LW NR)
17. San Diego St. – Western Athletic (9-3), (#60, #21 MM, LW #14MM)
18. Sam Houston St. – Southland (10-0), (#61, #22 MM, LW NR)
19. IUPUI – Summit (8-2, 1-0), (#64, #23 MM, LW #23 MM)
20. James Madison – Colonial (7-2, 1-0), (#66, #24 MM, LW #20 MM)
21. Lafayette – Patriot (8-3), (#68, #25 MM, LW NR
Not included because in polls:
Butler - Horizon (11-1, 1-1), (#5, #1 MM (LW #1 MM), #16 AP, #17 ESPN)
Memphis - Conference USA (10-0), (#6, #2 MM (LW #3 MM), #2 AP/ESPN)
Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 (11-1), (#13, #3 MM (LW #2 MM), #25 AP/ESPN)
Brigham Young - Mountain West (10-2), (#27, #7 MM (LW #6 MM), #20 AP, #21 ESPN)
Gonzaga - West Coast (9-3), (#40, #13 MM (LW #4 MM), #18 AP, #20 ESPN)
Dropped out: Holy Cross (7-2), Texas Arlington (8-2), Arkansas Little Rock (9-2, 1-0), UAB (8-5), Bradley (7-5)
Sunday, December 23rd, 2007
On the last day of action before the Christmas break, the game of the day features #98 Virginia Tech travelling to #83 Wake Forest for the second ACC conference game of the year (BC having already beaten Maryland). Both schools have unfortunately been in the news over the year, albeit in very different contexts, with the VT shooting and the sad death of Wake coach Skip Prosser, and while in this holiday season they should be in our thoughts when we talk about this game, ultimately it’s all about the hoops, and even though it’s still December these two teams both realize that any potential tournament hopes they may have will have to be garnered in ACC play, since their non-conference resumes aren’t overly strong. Wake are 7-3, with wins over Iowa and USF highlighting their schedule, and while their losses to Charlotte and Vandy are close enough to be respectable, the 22 point loss at Georgia looks pretty bad given Georgia’s poor showing in Hawaii. The Hokies are 6-4, and since their best win may be over GW, they have a lot of work to do. They did force Butler to overtime, so there is some potential here, but they’ll have to really turn it on during a three game road trip that starts today (bisected by the holiday, of course).
This should be an interesting clash of styles. VT are one of the nation’s slowest teams (321st), while Wake are fairly quick, not lightening fast, but quick (94th). Wake is strongest on the defensive end, where they cause loads of trouble for shooters, both inside and outside the arc (34th dEFG%), and press really hard and with good success, forcing a load of turnovers (10th). VT’s slow, deliberate offense is pretty solid at holding the ball (83rd), but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the press really disrupt them. They aren’t good shooters (263rd eFG%), so they could be in for a long night on the offensive end. Wake’s offense operates by pulling down offensive rebounds (58th), but they are weak in other elements, especially in shooting (263rd eFG%). Virginia Tech are strong at keeping their opponents shooting down (93rd), and being excellent defensive rebounders (40th) and getting to the line (25th).
A pair of dynamite freshman forwards are highlighted for these two teams. The Hokies Jeff Allen is a 52% shooter who takes a lot of shots, and has already registered 5 double-doubles, pulling down 9 rebounds a game. He is also a defensive force, picking up a block and two steals every game. The question is how he will be able to deal with the pure speed of the Wake game, and whether it will force errors from him or just tire him out. James Johnson is a key for Wake, as he has already had 6 double-doubles. He’s not as good a shooter as Allen, only 42.5% from the field and 65% from the line, but averages a clear 10 rebounds a game while also getting 2 steals and a block. A head-to-head matchup between these two players would be fascinating to see.
I think that Wake’s press will be able to unnerve the Hokies, who won’t be able to hang with Wake the whole way.
Sunday, December 23rd, 2007
Result of the Night:
Tennesee 82, Xavier 75 @ Cincinnati, OH
Both teams shot solidly in this one, so in the end it was ball control that decided this top 25 poll game. Threes were made sparingly, the teams shooting only around 25% combined, but the teams both still managed to top 50% eFG. Tennessee also ceded a large advantage on the glass, where Xavier were very effective offensively and defensively, and at the line, as the Musketeers shot 24-27 on their foul shots. However the pressing style of the Tennessee defence managed to nullify these differences by forcing 21 turnovers from the Musketeers, while the Vols were safer with ball, committing only 10. This difference in possession allowed Tennessee to get past Xavier in a game that was tight most of the way, but finished with a 13-2 run for the Vols.
Player of the Game: TEN SO J.P. Prince, 19 Mins, 9-14 FG, 23 Pts
Game of the Night:
Texas’ offense was just as effective in this game as it had been in the wins over Oral Roberts and UCLA, but the difference was Michigan St.’s ability to dominate Texas’ defence. Michigan St.’s offense was just as interiorly focused as could be expected, trying only 8 threes all game, but pounding it inside to the tune of 51% shooting from 2, and 49% overall. This fits with what I talked about yesterday, that Texas’ defence had had primarily perimeter based opponents, and their only other real test inside had been UCLA, where they almost lost. Both teams struggled in forcing turnovers, which could have been expected given their statistical profiles. Just 15 turnovers were committed by both teams combined, with the Spartans having a slight edge. While I did suggest that Texas would be able to take advantage of the defensive rebounding of the Spartans, which they did, grabbing 1 out of every 3 misses, I didn’t expect Texas to win the rebounding battle, which they did by handing Michigan St. their worst offensive rebounding game of the year. In the end, Texas’ offense simply wasn’t enough to compensate for their defensive struggles, and the Spartans’ managed to maintain a comfortable margin through the second half, as the Longhorns never seemed to be able to maintain a consistent pressure.
Drew Neitzel was not quite himself for the Spartans, putting together a solid, but not eye-popping performance. He shot 50%, but had only 2 assists in 36 minutes, which has to be considered a disappointment. Still, he didn’t commit any turnovers and was a real key for Michigan St.’s excellent ball control. Connor Atchley had a decent game considering he had his second lowest point output of the year. While he shot only 2-6 and didn’t manage to assert himself as a scoring threat, he did get 10 rebounds, 5 offensive, and blocked a game and season-high 4 shots. The player of the game for me was the Spartans big man, Goran Suton. Suton has yet to show any real consistency this year, but last night’s game was a high point, as he shot 6-9 for the field and pulled down 9 boards, adding 2 blocks and not turning the ball over once. If Suton can consistently do this against top quality opposition, the Spartans could be going for a while in March.
Top 25 teams:
#1 North Carolina 105, UC Santa Barbara 70 @ Chapel Hill, NC
#13 Michigan St. 78, #2 Texas 72 @ Auburn Hills, MI
#4 Kansas 78, Miami OH 54 @ Lawrence, KS
#5 Butler 78, Florida Gulf Coast 66 @ Fort Myers, FL
#6 West Virginia 77, Canisius 54 @ Morgantown, WV
#9 Memphis 85, #18 Georgetown 71 @ Memphis, TN
#10 Stanford 62, Texas Tech 61 @ Dallas, TX
#12 Rhode Island 88, Hofstra 69 @ Kingston, RI
#14 Mississippi 85, #16 Clemson 82 @ San Juan, PR
#15 Vanderbilt 83, Tennessee St. 74 @ Nashville, TN
Ohio St. 62, #17 Florida 49 @ Columbus, OH
#19 Texas A&M 88, UC Irvine 66 @ College Station, TX
#20 UCLA 69, Michigan 54 @ Ann Arbor, MI
Wisconsin 68, #23 Valparaiso 58 @ Madison, WI
5 ranked teams, and 3 undefeated teams drop, while the likes of Miami OH, UCSB and Florida get fairly rude lessons as to where they really rank in the college basketball world. A number of other interesting games also went on. Arizona beat a fairly high ranked San Diego St. team, Arkansas pulled a Michigan by losing to Appalachian St., VCU got a big win for their profile at Bradley, who have likely sunk from all at-large consideration, and Utah dealt Cal their second loss.
Some other results include Providence beating Florida St, Southern Illinois and Wichita St. striking some blows for the Valley by beating Western Kentucky and UAB, respectively, and a couple of huge home shockers as Oakland beat Oregon at home, despite a 22-5 Oregon run across the half-time divide, and Maryland suffered a third straight loss at home, this one the most shameful as American University came in and beat them by 8, this from a team that fell at home to Maryland – Baltimore County by 15. The transitive property thus results in me crowning the UMBC Retrievers as champions of Maryland.
Saturday, December 22nd, 2007
There’s a number of great games today, with 18 of the top 25 teams in action. The best of the lot chosen by the system is not the Memphis-Georgetown game, but is instead the Texas-Michigan St. game. The Spartans’ are 10-1, with their only loss by 5 on a neutral floor to UCLA and some solid road and neutral wins, including beating BYU and Bradley most recently. Texas are the number 2 team in the nation and sit 11-0, including beating Tennessee UCLA and some solid non-power conference teams in NMSU, North Texas and Oral Roberts. Both teams have elite offenses, but we saw how well that worked out in the Pitt-Duke game. Pitt were a very good offensive rebounding team, but MSU are even better, first in the nation. The Spartans have a huge focus on the interior game, not only in rebounding but also in their offense in general, as they are solid interior scorers (50th) and take most of their shots from the inside (340th 3PA/FGA). Texas are strong interior defenders (35th), but it’s very possible that they’ll get manhandled on the offensive glass (166th DR%). They have also faced primarily offenses shooting threes against them (41% 3PA/FGA), though this is likely also a factor of strong interior defence forcing outside shots, but it certainly seems as though the Spartans interior attack may have the upper hand. Texas’ offense is also among the nation’s elite, as they shoot spectacularly from 3 (14th), and not bad from 2 (46th), while holding on to the ball better than any other team in the nation. The Spartans’ defence isn’t strong at forcing turnovers (191st), so I wouldn’t expect Texas to cough it up too many times. Michigan St. are solid at holding their opponents shooting down (32nd deFG%), but interestingly they aren’t strong on the defensive glass (158th), where Texas may be able to take advantage (53rd)
I talked about Raymar Morgan the last time I featured Michigan St., so this time I’ll be talking about senior guard Drew Neitzel. Neitzel is a solid shooter, 45% from the field and from behind the arc, while also hitting 78% of his free throws. He also dishes out 5 assists a game, while committing just barely a turnover a game. With Texas holding onto the ball so effectively, Michigan St. will have to do their best to avoid losing out on possessions, and Neitzel’s steady hands will be a large part of that. He has scored in double digits in every Spartans game this year. DJ Augustine is spectacular for Texas, but I really love big junior forward Connor Atchley. Atchley was a complimentary piece off the bench last year, but has developed into a huge player for the Longhorns so far this year. He hits 63% of his shots from the floor, and just about the same percentage from behind the line, which is critical from a 6-10 player. He also pulls down six boards, while adding defensive value with a steal and two blocks a game. He’s only the third highest scorer, but is critical for Texas’ chances.
Other good games are of course the Memphis-Georgetown game, the national championship rematch of Florida and Ohio St., Providence hosting Florida St., Valpo travelling to Wisconsin and a good game between Clemson and Mississippi in Puerto Rico. Altogether, a great day of college ball.
Saturday, December 22nd, 2007
Rider 61, Rutgers 57 @ Piscataway, NJ
Most of the games tonight weren’t particularly close in terms of teams rankings, so this was probably the most significant result of the night. Rutgers had certainly struggled on the road, but for the most part their home play had been decent. However, they fell to a Rider team that has put together a modest three-game road winning streak. The two teams were essentially equal in possessions, as Rutgers’ advantage in rebounding was countered by their inability to force turnovers from the Broncs. Rider was a disaster at the free throw line, hitting just 7-18, but managed to get to the line enough times to nullify this disadvantage, compared to the Knights. Altogether, this was a pretty sorry home performance for Rutgers, who shot just 35% from the field.
Player of the Game: RID SO G Ryan Thompson, 8-14 FG, 9 Rbs, 19 Pts
Game of the Night:
Lafayette led this game the whole way, but a 24-8 run by the Mountaineers to end the game at least managed to restore their respectability. I discussed the Leopards’ three-point shooting, and it was on display in spades, as they hit 11-22 from behind the arc, shooting an excellent 66.3 eFG% for the game. Their main problem stemmed from turnovers, as they committed one almost every third time down the floor. The Mountaineers weren’t too bad on offense, shooting 50.6% eFG, and getting to the line often and effectively, but being not too bad was simply not good enough to stop Lafayette’s dynamite shooting.
Andrew Brown was the player of the game easily, and he was precisely as important for the Lafayette offense as I expected based on his numbers coming in. He shot 11-16 from the field, including a sparkling 9-14 from 3 (a school record with 9 threes), and while he didn’t make any other impact on the boxscore, I’d say a game and career high 32 point effort isn’t half bad. He was the only Leopard in double digits, and is really the only reason his team managed to win. Jeremy Goode wasn’t top scorer for the Mountaineers, but he did have a typical very solid game, shooting 50% from the field (though only 6-10 from the line), and picking up 7 assists and 3 steals, along with 3 rebounds.
This was a fun game to preview and recap, though, and I just wish that more games like this would be televised, since even though no one is going to be talking about this game after tomorrow’s slate of big games, there were some good players and performances here too.
Top 25 teams:
#15 Mississippi 84, La Salle 77 @ San Juan, PR
#21 Clemson 90, DePaul 74 @ San Juan, PR
The Puerto Rico tournament has progressed to form, but the similar tournament in Hawaii definitely has not, as Georgia dropped their second game after entering the tournament at 6-1. Davidson also lost at NC State to conclude their non-conference schedule, which started with loads of hype and a close loss at UNC, only to end with a 1-6 record against non-conference D1 opponents.
Friday, December 21th, 2007
#14 (6): Vanderbilt (10-0), 2174.8
A big gap gets us up to the top 14. Vandy moved back as they had the week off and with only a single week game this week, probably won’t get back into the top 10 anytime soon.
Last week: None
This week: S v. #285 Tennessee St.
#13 (14): Michigan St. (10-1), 2179.2
A couple of pretty routine wins this week leaves the Spartans about where they started, but they have a huge chance for a signature win against Texas. This may actually be a bigger game than Georgetown-Memphis, as the ranks of the teams involved will be better for the latter game. Getting past this game could potentially start them on a long run once they get into Big Ten play, as their first game against the other top teams comes in mid-February against Indiana.
Last week: W v. #274 IUPU Fort Wayne 79-57, W v. #240 San Jose St. 85-45
This week: S v. #2 Texas
#12 (5): Rhode Island (10-1), 2179.6
Inactivity cost the Rams 7 spots, but a game against Hofstra really won’t help them get any of it back. As mentioned before, this team should cruise into conference play at 13-1, with no real tough games left.
Last week: None
This week: S v. #232 Hofstra
#11 (8): Miami FL (11-0), 2182.9
The Hurricanes breezed through their week, and with only one game coming up this week should do so again. Reaching the ACC 14-0 is just getting closer and closer.
Last week: W v. #337 North Florida 85-63
This week: U v. #280 North Carolina A&T
#10 (9): Stanford (9-1), 2186.0
The win over Santa Clara gave them a pretty good boost, but this is still a team that has played only once in the last two weeks, so they fall down somewhat. Hopefully we’ll get a good assessement of them when they play a weakened Texas Tech team tomorrow.
Last week: W v. #116 Santa Clara 74-48
This week: S v. #109 Texas Tech (N)
#9 (18): Memphis (9-0), 2186.0
The Tigers made a strong move up with a couple of pretty easy wins this week, and have a chance to go even further up over the next couple of weeks. They will hope to push into the top 5 before enetering conference play, where they will gain plenty of points with wins, but lack marquee victories.
Last week: W v. #238 Middle Tennessee (N) 65-41, W v. #217 Cinicinnati (N) 79-69
This week: S v. #17 Georgetown
#8 (12): Pittsburgh (11-0), 2191.0
The Panthers remain undefeated, but can’t quite pass Duke, though this is a huge boost to their rating, even as a one-point win. A big win at Dayton could be enough to push them up into the top 5. However, they have a week off to think about that possibility.
Last week: W v. #175 Oklahoma St. 85-68, W v. #7 Duke (N) 65-64
This week: None
#7 (1): Duke (9-1), 2194.2
The Blue Devils take a decent tumble, but since it was only a one-point loss and at a neutral site, the hit isn’t enough to drop them from the top 10. They’ll have a couple cupcakes to rebound with, but won’t play again ‘till December, suggesting they very well may end up out of the top 10 by next week.
Last week: W v. #157 Albany 111-70, L v. #8 Pittsburgh (N) 64-65
This week: None
#6 (17): West Virginia (9-1), 2196.5
The Mountaineers crushed a MD Baltimore County team that isn’t as bad as one would think, and demolished Radford in their building too. Oklahoma’s good win over Gonzaga makes that matchup at the end of the month a very appealing one.
Last week: W v. #112 MD Baltimore County 86-62, W @ #300 Radford 90-60
This week: S @ #313 Canisius
#5 (10): Butler (10-1, 1-1), 2198.0
The Bulldogs are the highest ranked one-loss team in the nation, and easily handling Florida St. and Bradley in Indianapolis only confirmed this. I expect them to manhandle Southern Illinois next week, but for the upcoming one they’ll only have a single cupcake game.
Last week: W v. #29 Florida St. 79-68, W v. #76 Bradley 83-64
This week: S @ #283 Florida Gulf Coast
#4 (11): Kansas (11-0), 2200.6
The Jayhawks have stepped up into the national elite, and their utter domination of Ohio was spectacular. Gutting out a tough win in Atlanta was impressive too. Miami of Ohio could cause them problems, but shouldn’t be enough to derail them.
Last week: W v. #69 Ohio (N) 88-51, W @ #155 Georgia Tech 71-66
This week: S v. #105 Miami OH
#3 (2): Washington St. (10-0), 2202.1
Not much interesting will happen with the Cougars the rest of 2007, as they are firmly into the creampuff part of their schedule.
Last week: W v. #309 The Citadel 67-45
This week: U v. #310 Idaho St.
#2 (4): Texas (11-0), 2205.4
That Oral Roberts win looks a lot better after they waxed Oklahoma St. yesterday, but the matchups with Michigan St., then with Wisconsin next week will be a huge chance for Texas to validate (or not) their place in the national elite.
Last week: W v. #161 Texas St. 96-81, W v. #83 Oral Roberts 66-56
This week: S v. #13 Michigan St. (N)
#1 (3): North Carolina (10-0), 2228.5
The Tarheels are clearly off the front of the pack as an undisputed #1 team in the country. Crushing any power conference team by more than 20 in their building will always give a big boost, even if that team is Rutgers. They have some moderate difficulty games that they can’t afford to look past coming up at the end of the month
Last week: W @ #147 Rutgers 93-71, W v. #215 Nicholls St. 88-78
This week: S v. #27 UC Santa Barbara, R v. #104 Nevada
Friday, December 21th, 2007
#25 (NR): Tennessee (10-1), 2142.3
Tennessee moves into the rankings for the first time all year, and though they will be severely tested in the next couple of weeks, including at Xavier on Saturday, they are still a 10-1 team, and beating West Virginia and a solid Western Kentucky team show they will definitely have more than a fighting chance in their next couple of games and in the SEC in general.
Last week: W v. #77 Western Kentucky (N) 88-82, W v. #132 NC Asheville 86-73
This week: S @ #32 Xavier
#24 (22): Kent St. (9-2), 2144.5
Kent St.’s only game this week was a theoretically easy game against IUPU-FW, which turned into a close two-point win. They’ll likely be out of the top 25 next week, as they are inactive, and are basically kicking their heels waiting for that shot at North Carolina.
Last week: W v. #274 IUPU Fort Wayne 72-70
This week: None
#23 (23): Valparaiso (10-1, 2-0), 2149.8
The Crusaders did their job this week, smoking Chicago St. at home, but the real challenge comes tomorrow, when they travel to Wisconsin. A win there could make this team a potential at-large candidate, otherwise they’ll be hoping to slip by Butler in the conference tournament.
Last week: W 90-61 v. #312 Chicago St.
This week: S @ #36 Wisconsin
#22 (25): Indiana (9-1), 2151.5
Another team that did their business this week, beating Western Carolina by almost 50, and should continue to breeze into conference play.
Last week: W v. #281 Western Carolina 100-52
This week: S v. #321 Coppin St.
#21 (16): Clemson (9-0), 2153.3
The Tigers have had two weeks off from D1 competition, but with two games in Puerto Rico they have a big chance to move up. Completing the sweep of the Mississippi schools would go a long way to setting this team up well for the ACC season
Last week: W v. Non-D1 Puerto Rico Mayaguez 90-73
This week: F v. #251 DePaul (N), S v. #15 Mississippi (N)
#20 (NR): Oklahoma (9-3), 2154.6
This is the highest ranked multi-loss team, but after a couple of very solid wins over Arkansas and Gonzaga they definitely deserve it. They have the week off, but beating West Virginia at the end of the month is not out of the question at all. The Sooners are looking like a serious factor in the Big 12 race.
Last week: W v. #47 Arkansas 83-72, W v. #37 Gonzaga (N) 72-68
This week: None
#19 (NR): UCLA (10-1), 2156.4
UCLA reappear after two weeks in which they were completely unranked. The fact is that other than the Michigan St. win, this team doesn’t have any other real quality wins. That being said, they are still 10-1 and losing by 2 to Texas is no shame. They won’t have much of a chance to move up with two easy games to close out the month, but will likely take a rise when Pac-10 play starts.
Last week: W v. #310 Idaho St. 89-49, W v. #293 Western Illinois 77-52
This week: S @ #244 Michigan
#18 (NR): Texas A&M (10-1), 2161.9
There’s a huge gap between the nation and the top 18, which starts with the return of the Aggies. I’m not sure why they’re not ranked higher, but I suppose that the wins over Ohio St. and Alabama aren’t really strong enough to give them much of a boost. Well, they won’t be getting much more of a boost until they play LSU in January, so I’m not sure if they’ll stay ranked.
Last week: W v. #239 Arkansas Pine Bluff 64-37, W v. #278 Detroit 79-39
This week: S v. #236 UC Irvine
#17 (20): Georgetown (8-0), 2163.3
Alright, so their schedule to date has pretty much sucked, but that’ll be alleviated big time on Saturday. Despite their ranking, this is a team I like from what little I’ve seen of them this year, and I think they will give Memphis as much as they can handle.
Last week: W v. #300 Radford 110-51
This week: S @ #9 Memphis
#16 (21): Florida (11-1), 2165.9
The defending national champions continue a quiet, but solid run against a pretty weak schedule. The Florida St. loss showed what a power conference team can do against the Gators, but seeing them in a national championship rematch against Ohio St. will tell us if the young Florida team has learned anything from their non-conference cupcake wins.
Last week: W v. #90 Georgia Southern (N) 52-49, W v. #268 Charleston Southern 89-64
This week: S @ #73 Ohio St.
#15 (13): Mississippi (9-0), 2167.6
An undefeated Rebels team drop one spot, but will hope to move up in the rankings as they continue their sojourn in Puerto Rico. A win against Clemson would likely lead to them making SEC play undefeated, but that is hardly a gimme. Ole Miss-Clemson will be a game that not many will see, but that will be one of the more interesting ones of the day.
Last week: W v. #251 DePaul (N) 69-63
This week: F v. #196 La Salle (N), S v. #21 Clemson (N)
Friday, December 21th, 2007
After a classic battle of undefeated power conference teams, the games just bigger and more important, as tonight’s high-profile matchup of #81 Lafayette travelling to #111 Mount St. Mary’s clearly proves. OK, so it’s a pretty light night, but this game is interesting in that it shows a weakness of the system. Lafayette are technically 7-3, but their wins aren’t too strong, other than beating MD Baltimore County. Their losses are early in the season and close, though, except for a road smoking against Rutgers. Mount St. Mary’s are 6-4, but since they have hit a 6-game winning streak, including a solid win against Winthrop on Tuesday, they’ve moved up. Both have rankings based more on just winning, ignoring the opponent. Lafayette have played an abysmally weak schedule, and unsurprisingly have looked good in that context. Their offense depends on their shooting, as they are 41% three-point shooters, and are 17th in the nation in three-pointer frequency. They also get decently to the line (98th), and move the ball around well (59th, A/FGM). The Mountaineers defence is best at stopping twos (84th), so I’m not sure if they’ll be able to defend the perimeter attack. They are good at preventing good ball movement, though (35th, A/FGM). They also force turnovers solidly (81st), which should have some success against Lafayette (160th). The Mountaineers have really struggled on offense, though, as they are among the worst shooters inside in the nation (302nd), and don’t take any advantage of their 38% three-point shooting, taking the large majority of their shots as twos (326th 3PA/FGA). The Mountaineers struggle on the boards at both ends (242nd off, 253rd def), but Lafayette aren’t any better (201st off, 325th def).
The Leopards’ best scorer is 5-11 junior guard Andrew Brown. He’s a 47.5% shooter, and a 47% three-point shooter. He’s the team leader in assists, and can occasionally chip in a steal, but his primary value is as a scorer, as he’s hit double-digits in all but one of Lafayette’s games. Mount St. Mary’s also feature a small guard in 5-9 sophomore Jeremy Goode. Goode is an interesting player, as he plays much bigger than 5-9, at least statistically. He’s a 45% shooter, but the large majority of his shots are from the line and from inside the arc, rather than the three-pointers one might expect from a short player. He is very solid at running the offense with almost 6 assists a game, and while larger players will be able to shoot over him, he is great at stealing the ball, picking up almost 3 a game. The thing that might impress me most is his rebounding, where he is second on the team with 4-and-a-half a game. When your second best rebounder is 5-9, you need to practice on the glass. Adding to all the, he is also a key primary scorer, as he is on an 8 game double-digit scoring streak.
I think that the Mountaineers will be able to hold on against Lafayette. While the analysis seems to slightly favour the Leopards, the fact is that their numbers have come against some really weak teams, and I think that the Mountaineers might be good enough defensively to cause them to unravel.
Friday, December 21th, 2007
East Tennessee St. 76, Georgia 58 @ Honolulu, HI
This game was such a shocker that the web seemed to even have trouble getting it right, with ESPN telling me it was really a win by Tulane that happened tomorrow, and even the East Tennessee St. team website trying to convince me this was a loss against themselves. Either of those options would have less surprising than this. East Tennessee St. came into this game with only 3 D1 wins, and were coming off a 50-point shellacking at the Carrier Dome, where Syracuse shot 76%! Georgia, meanwhile, were a reasonable 6-1, with their loss coming at Wisconsin and a good win over Wake Forest in the books. So of course, the Buccaneers managed to hold Georgia under 50% eFG for the first time all season, and by a wide margin too, as the Dawgs shot just 41% eFG, including 8-28 from 3. While Georgia did manage to grab a ton of offensive rebounds, it really doesn’t help when you miss so many shots, and commit a load of turnovers, as the Bulldogs committed 24 of them. This was actually at a similar rate to their turnovers against Wake, but there they managed to both force turnovers of their own and keep their opponents shooting cold. Here, neither happened, as the Bucs shot 47% from the floor en route to an easy win.
Player of the Game: ETSU SR F Andrew Reed, 6-9 FG, 8 Rbs, 3 Blks, 14 Pts
Game of the Night:
Pitt-Duke was definitely as entertaining as I’d hoped it be, as the two teams went toe to toe, with Duke looking like sure winners late in the first half, only for the Panthers to come storming back. I mentioned yesterday that the Blue Devils were great three-point shooters, but that this was an area that Pitt could defend, and it turns out they did a very good job of doing just that, as Duke shot just 4-19 from behind the arc. I also praised Duke’s turnover control, though, and while their rate wasn’t egregious, it was merely average, and on a night where the shots weren’t falling, average wasn’t good enough. I figured the two offenses would be on show, but it was the exact opposite. The Panthers were held to just 37.7% eFG, and only shot 43% inside, which is typically their offensive bread and butter. Duke also managed to force loads of turnovers out of a relatively turnover-free offense, but ultimately this wasn’t enough to cancel out Pitt’s absurd advantage on the boards. The story was not as much Pitt on the offensive glass, though that’s what you’ll probably hear and read about, as much as it was about the defensive glass. Pitt have had a number of games with better OR%, and Duke have had at least one worse one. However, Duke were utterly unable to recover their own misses, and this combined with their woeful free throw shooting, just 54%, to sink them.
Jon Scheyer had a disastrous night coming off the bench. He did get 12 boards, the same as his 6 teammates who played more than 12 minutes combined. However, his 1-10 shooting night essentially nullified this, and overall it was a night to forget for him. DeJuan Blair, on the other hand, was an absolute beast. I’d seen him against Oklahoma St., but I didn’t think much of the Cowboys, so I wasn’t as impressed as I was tonight as he manhandled Duke. 50% from the field, and less than that from the line is not a great evening generally, but when combined with 20 rebounds, including 6 offensive, and 3 blocks, it’s quite clear that Blair is a game changing force. This guy certainly seems to deserve as much, if not more, pub than the other ‘super’ freshmen in this class.
Top 25 teams:
#7 Washington St. 67, The Citadel 45 @ Pullman, WA
#12 Miami FL 85, North Florida 63 @ Coral Gables, FL
#14 Pittsburgh 65, #2 Duke 64 @ New York, NY
#18 Mississippi 69, DePaul 63 @ San Juan, PR
Oklahoma 72, #20 Gonzaga 68 @ Oklahoma City, OK
Gonzaga have a tough night in Oklahoma City, losing after a blocked three-point attempt for the tie by Jeremy Pargo. The Big 12 is definitely way up this year, and at this point I wouldn’t be too surprised to see as many as 6 bids come out of the conference (Texas, Kansas, A+M, Oklahoma and 2 of Baylor, Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas St. doesn’t seem out of the question). Other games of interest saw Miami of Ohio take out Illinois in Champaign, though they needed overtime to do it, and Oral Roberts striking a major blow for the Summit League by dominating Oklahoma St.
Thursday, December 20th, 2007
There are two really interesting games today, but of course the one that wins out as the game of the day is the #14 Pitt Panthers and #2 Duke meeting in New York City. I'm not sure that I'll be able to add anything to the analysis of this game that you won't be able to read or hear somewhere else, but I'll do my best. The Blue Devils are 10-0, and have spent the most days of any team this year at #1, at 14. Their wins include beating Illinois and Marquette on neutral floors and a complete destruction of Wisconsin at Cameron Indoor. They haven't played a true road game yet, but this is their fifth neutral game, so the lack of road games doesn't really hurt. Pitt are also 10-0, but have no real marquee wins, their best win to date coming over Duquesne. They've also only played two road games, one the Duquesne game, another a 1-point win over Washington.
This game will be a very interest contrast of paces, as Duke is one of the faster teams in the nation while the Panthers are among the slower teams. One thing both do have in common, though, are spectacular offenses. Duke are spectacular shooters (5th eFG%), especially from 3 (7th) and hold on the ball extremely well (29th). They also are very solid at getting to the line and getting offensive boards (96th, 101st). Pitt will counter this with a high quality, but not great defence. The Panthers will likely not get a ton of turnovers from Duke (140th), but will cause them trouble at getting to the line (8th) and prevent three-point shots (15th). The Pitt offense's effectiveness, rather than stemming from perimeter shooting, depends on excellent inside play (45th 2P%, 278th 3PA/FGA), mostly in getting second chances on the offensive glass (4th). Like Duke they hold the ball very well (23rd), but they don't get to the line much (179th), considering how inside focused they are. Duke's defence is a nationally elite unit to date, but they have no one specific strength, instead working by being pretty good at most facets of the game. Offensive rebounding and two-point defence are relative weakness (60th, 81st), but for most teams I would probably call those strengths.
Duke boast 5 double-digit scorers, and the one I'm focusing in on is sophomore guard Jon Scheyer. Scheyer has shot 50% from 3 this year, with about half of his attempts being threes, and also has hit 90% of his free throws. He can be counted on for a few boards and a couple of assists a game as well, but it'll be interesting to see if Pitt's perimeter defence can shut him down, especially as he tends to be one of the lesser shooting options, compared with Henderson or Singler. I honestly wanted to talk about someone other than freshman DeJuan Blair for Pitt, but I couldn't bring myself to. This kid has been spectacular, a 58% shooter whose numbers would be absolutely eye-popping if he were averaging more than just 22 minutes a game. When he plays, his rebounding pace is about the same as Michael Beasley's, and he is one of the nation's elite offensive rebounders so far this year. He also significantly alters his opponents offensive setup, getting 2 steals and a block-and-a-half a game.
Pitt haven't faced an opponent like Duke yet this year, but there is some reasonable amount of similarity in the styles of Pitt and Marquette (offense-first teams that pound it inside and work the offensive glass). However, Marquette don't look as good as Pitt on the inside, and are much closer to Duke's pace, and that game was pretty close. This may very well be the game of the year to date, and my prediction is that Duke will have enough to win, as Pitt will just not be comfortable with the level of their opponent.
Gonzaga-Oklahoma will be another fascinating game that will start at 9, so it should definitely be tuned on after the first game. It's a neutral court, but not a neutral crowd, and a chance for Oklahoma to put together back-to-back really solid wins after beating Arkansas on the weekend.
Thursday, December 20th, 2007
I mentioned this game briefly yesterday as one to watch, I certainly expected this one to be at least a little closer, but the Bulls never led in this game, and were down 13 after 11 minutes. The good news is that they managed to keep the game even in the last 29 minutes, but they never got closer than 5 at any point after that. Wake had one of their best shooting games of the year at 55.7 eFG%, while USF were disastrous, shooting only 34% from the field and going just 3-19 from behind the arc. In terms of turnovers, rebounding and free throws the two teams were fairly evenly matched, but that huge shooting disparity was enough to easily settle the game in the Demon Deacons favour.
Player of the Game: WF SO F Jamie Skeen, 5-7 FG, 5-7 FT, 7 Rbs, 3 Blks, 17 Pts
Game of the Night:
I didn't think that this game would be quite so low-scoring and defensive, especially considering Arizona's excellent offense to date, but from the boxscore this looked like an ugly, dirty, defensive game, not really the type of game associated with Arizona in the last few games. The two teams combined to shoot less than 33% from the field, with the Wildcats leading with a blitzing 35%. Arizona's 3-point shooting that had been one of the best in the nation went just 7-24. UNLV's struggles from behind the line, however (5-19), were more expected. A couple of other matchups went the way that we expected based on the stats. Arizona were utterly ineffective at forcing turnovers from the Rebels, just 5 all night, while coughing it up 15 times themselves. They managed to get back those possessions on the defensive glass, though, as they smoked the Rebels, holding them to just 5 offensive boards (14.3%) on the many missed shots. Ultimately, this was probably the difference, considering how close the game was. If UNLV had managed to get back just a couple more of their own misses, they might have had enough to hold on down the stretch.
I mentioned that Curtis Terry was UNLV's best shooter from 3, but he certainly didn't look like it last night, as he hid just 1-8, and only 2-12 overall. Arizona clearly did key on him and were abundantly successful at doing so. Arizona forward Jordan Hill I at least got right, as he played his most minutes of the year in a regulation game at 38, managing to stay out of foul trouble and at the same time dominate on the inside. He shot 50%, putting up a team-high 16. The real key, though was his 8 offensive boards, which was almost all of the Wildcats total, and would have made him UNLV's leading rebounder. The fact he added 11 defensive boards to earn a 19-and-16 double-double only added to his value.
Top 25 teams:
#1 North Carolina 88, Nicholls St. 78 @ Chapel Hill, NC
#6 Butler 83, Bradley 64 @ Indianapolis, IN
#11 West Virginia 90, Radford 60 @ Radford, VA
#12 Memphis 79, Cincinnati 69 @ Cincinnati, OH
#13 Stanford 74, Santa Clara 48 @ Stanford, CA
#14 Michigan St. 85, San Jose St. 45 @ Lansing, MI
#18 Florida 89, Charleston Southern 64 @ Gainesville, FL
#22 Texas A&M 79, Detroit 39 @ College Station, TX
The ranked teams go undefeated today, with some huge, dominating wins and nothing within single digits. Non-ranked games of interest include Baylor beating South Carolina in Columbia, Wichita St. beating LSU and Wofford out of the Southern Conference beating Purdue in West Lafayette, as the Big Ten keeps taking one step forward and two steps back.
Wednesday, December 19th, 2007
Again: Teams in the top 25 of the AP or ESPN/USA Today poll won't be counted, though I will mention them at the end.
1. Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 (10-1), (#7, #2 MM, LW #1 MM)
The Rams were inactive this week, so they don't move much of anywhere. They only have two games in the rest of the month, so they will probably sit around the top 10 until conference play, as they should breeze through those.
Last week: None
This week: S v. #233 Hofstra
2. Valparaiso - Horizon (10-1), (#23, #5 MM, LW #6 MM)
The Crusaders do not have a single vote in either poll despite their gaudy record, as they gave mostly played pretty weak opposition. However, don't be surprised to see them Wisconsin a really tough time this week. Even if they lose against the Badgers, we'll learn something about just how good this team is by seeing them against really quality opposition. Their player of the week was Finnish sophomore guard Samuel Haanpaa, who hit 11-13 shots, including 10 of 12 3s, en route to a 32 point game.
Last week: W v. #318 Chicago St. 90-61
This week: S @ #33 Wisconsin
3. Kent State - Mid-American (8-2), (#27, #7 MM, LW #5 MM)
The Golden Flashes also had a week off and don't move much in the rankings. They should go into North Carolina in the new year at 10-2, with only a couple of creampuffs left in 2007.
Last week: None
This week: R v. #270 IUPU Fort Wayne
4. Houston - Conference USA (10-1), (#28, #8 MM, LW #9MM)
I taped, but haven't yet watched Houston's win over Kentucky, and I probably will watch it just to see the Cougars for the first time. Sure, Kentucky aren't much good, but it's still a very good win. Houston still have not played a true road game though, and they will only play one before conference play starts. They'll fall back some this week as they are taking the week off. The best player in the win over Kentukcy was probably senior guard Dion Dowell, who shot 5-12, scoring 19 points and adding 9 boards and a couple of blocks to that.
Last week: W v. #182 Kentucky 83-69
This week: None
5. Drake - Missouri Valley (9-1), (#29, #9 MM, LW #11 MM)
Drake are unbelievably done with their non-conference schedule. They won't play again until Dec. 29 at Wichita St.. They finish the non-conference slate 9-1, with solid wins against Duquesne, Iowa St. and at Iowa. Still, they have nothing even close to resembling a signature win. It seems to me that for any chance at an at-large bid they will need to be a top 3-4 team in the Valley and make a run to the conference tournament final. The best player in the win over Iowa was junior forward Jonathan Cox, who earned a skin-of-his-teeth double-double with 10 points and 10 boards.
Last week: W @ #202 Iowa 56-51
This week: None
6. Massachusetts - Atlantic 10 (8-2), (#31, #11 MM, LW #17 MM)
7. Dayton - Atlantic 10 (8-1), (#41, #12 MM, LW #15 MM)
8. New Mexico - Mountain West (9-2), (#42, #13 MM, LW #19 MM)
9. San Diego St. - Mountain West (9-2), (#43, #14 MM, LW #14 MM)
10. Stephen F. Austin - Southland (8-1), (#45, #15 MM, LW #18 MM)
11. UC Santa Barbara - Big West (9-1), (#46, #16 MM, LW #10 MM)
12. Creighton - Missouri Valley (7-1), (#47, #17 MM, LW #12 MM)
13. Holy Cross - Patriot (7-1), (#50, #18 MM, LW #16 MM)
14. Texas Arlington - Southland (8-1), (#52, #19 MM, LW #8 MM)
15. James Madison - Colonial (7-1), (#53, #20 MM, LW #20 MM)
16. Arkansas Little Rock - Sun Belt (7-1), (#55, #21 MM, LW #24 MM)
17. UAB - Conference USA (8-4), (#57, #22 MM, LW NR)
18. IUPUI - Summit (8-2), (#60, #23 MM, LW NR)
16. Duquesne - Atlantic 10 (6-3), (#61, #24 MM, LW #21 MM)
17. Bradley - Missouri Valley (7-3), (#62, #25 MM, LW #22 MM)
Not included because in polls:
Butler - Horizon (9-1), (#6, #1 MM (LW #3 MM), #16 AP, #18 ESPN)
Memphis - Conference USA (8-0), (#12, #3 MM (LW #4MM), #2 AP/ESPN)
Gonzaga - West Coast (9-2), (#19, #4 MM (LW #7MM), #18 AP, #20 ESPN)
Brigham Young - Mountain West (9-2), (#24, #6 MM (LW #13MM) , #21 AP, #23 ESPN)
Xavier - Atlantic 10 (8-2), (#30, #10 MM (LW #2MM), #24 ESPN)
Dropped out: UNLV (7-2), St. Mary's (7-1)
Wednesday, December 19th, 2007
Eight Top 25 teams are in action tonight, but the most interesting game does not involve any of them. Instead, the feature is a late-night western game, featuring the #56 Arizona Wildcats travelling northwest to Las Vegas to face the #71 UNLV Rebels. The Wildcats are 7-2, with a very good win over Texas A&M and two losses by a combined seven points. However, the problem is that they have only a single road game, though this game and a trip to Memphis later this month will alleviate that. UNLV is part of the 7th ranked MWC group that is hanging around the top 100, at 7-2. Their losses were a 20-point shellacking at home by Louisville, and a three point loss at a well-rated UC Santa Barbara team. They do have wins over UTEP and Nevada, but this would be the signature win they would need to seriously challenge for an at-large bid. Arizona has boasted one of the best offenses in the nation, shooting solidly from two (61st) and spectacularly from 3 (9th). They are also very solid at getting to the line (14th), and move the ball very well (11th in A/FGM). UNLV may be equipped to defend them, but it will be difficult. Still, UNLV's defence is solid at defending the three (14th) and preventing teams from getting to the line (91st). UNLV's biggest defensive weakness, the boards (261st) is also Arizona's offensive weakness (234th), so it's not really clear how that'll end up. The UNLV offense is similar to the defence, in that it is above average but not spectacular. However, it is a success that it is average considering the terrible shooting from 3 (261st), which happens far too often (62nd). The offense is powered by a spectacular turnover rate (5th), and are solid at getting to the line (50th). They also really struggle with offensive rebounding (286th). Arizona have a solid matchup on the glass where they are very solid defensive rebounders (43rd), but may have trouble taking advantage of the Rebels poor 3-shooting, as their own 3-defence is not particularly good (223rd). Add to this the fact that Arizona don't force turnovers (261st), and you get a sort of good, sort of bad matchup on both ends of the floor.
UNLV have three players scoring around 13 points per game, but I'll focus on the leading scorer, senior guard Curtis Terry. Terry is a 55% shooter on the year, and shoots 48% from three, the only player who gets regular time and shoots above 33% from three on the team. He also chips wion with around 4 assists and a steal per game, but he will be one of the players to key on for Arizona. The Wildcats are powered by sophomore forward Jordan Hill, who is coming off a 23 point game in the win over Illniois a couple of weeks ago. He's is a 64% shooter, and will be the tallest player for most of the game. He leads the team with 6 rebounds and a block and a half per game, but needs to stay out of foul trouble, as he has picked up at least 4 in all but three games this year.
My pick is Arizona, who simply have too much on offense to be stopped.
Other good games should be South Florida travelling to Wake, and Bradley facing off against Butler in Indiana.
Wednesday, December 19th, 2007
Alright, so now that my own exams are done, I'm back full-time.
Syracuse 87, Colgate 59 @ Syracuse, NY
The system really liked Colgate, emphasis on the past tense there. This was an important game for the Orange with the loss of Devendorf, and they definitely showed up really strongly. The Red Raiders had mostly gotten their ranking through road wins, but they defeintely couldn't stay with Syracuse. The Orange shot 54% from the floor, including an absurd 62.5% from inside the arc, while still getting to the line more than 30 times. The Red Raiders, in contrast, shot just 37%, while also allowing Syracuse to retrieve more than 50% of their misses. This low shooting percentage was in part due to the 11 blocks that Syracuse had, which wre evenly sread through the team, no one player collecting more than one.
Player of the Game: SYR FR F Donte Green, 9-14 FG, 4-8 3P, 5 Rbs, 2 Stls, 26 Pts
Top 25 teams:
#4 Texas 66, Oral Roberts 56 @ Austin, TX
#5 Kansas 71, Georgia Tech 66 @ Atlanta, GA
#23 UCLA 77, Western Illinois 52 @ Los Angeles, CA
All three teams make solid moves up, while other games had Houston handily beating Kentucky and Southern Illinois dropping yet another game, this time by 16 to Western Michigan.
Monday, December 17th, 2007
I'm only gonna have really brief updates for the next few days.
Top 25:
#4 UNC 93, Rutgers 71 @ Chapel Hill, NC
Game of the Night:
ODU just held off VT by shooting 49% from the field and 53% from three while holding onto the ball, wining despite a huge rebound advantage for the Hokies. ODU's Brandon Johnson was the best player with 6-11 from the field, 5 Rbs, 9 Asts, 4 Stls and 15 Pts.
Result of the Night: Tennessee tech blitz Oregon St. in Corvallis, shooting 48% to 36% for the Beavers. Oregon St. are just 4-23 from behind the arc. The Golden Eagles are led by guard Anthony Fisher, who put up 21 points on 6-9 shooting and 8-10 FTs
Tomorrow's game of the Day:
Some top teams in action, but no real interesting games. The pick of the system is #191 Montana at #104 Santa Clara. The grizzlies are very good 3 points shooters and hold the ball very well, but their defence will be tested by the Broncos spectacular shooting , 5th eFG% in the nation. Santa Clara's defence is pretty porous though.
Junior centre John Bryant is Santa Clara's top scorer, shooting 63% from the field and 72% from the line with an average of 2 blocks and 8 boards. Montana are led by junior forward Jordan Hasquet, who shoots 48%, 35% from 3, and averages 16 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists.
Sunday, December 16th, 2007
With a couple of interesting games up, the game of the day is #165 Old Dominion hosting #83 Virginia Tech. ODU are 5-4, but their 4 losses are all respectable ones, and this is a great chance for a resume win. The Hokies are 5-3, with their three losses also all against power conference teams. Virginia Tech's offensive strength is their 3-point shooting (49th), which is rare (310th), and their turnover prevention (75th). Old Dominion's defence is strong inside (90th), and prevents teams from getting to the line (38th). The ODU offence strongly depends on offensive rebounding (24th), where Virginia Tech are decent defenders (91st). The Hokies are similar to the Monarchs as a strong inside (46th) team with little chance to get to the line (42nd).
ODU senior G Brandon Johnson is an interesting player, as he shoots 45% from the field and from 3 while averaging 5 rebounds and assists, and chipping in with a couple of steals a game. VT's freshman forward Jeff Allen already has 4 double doubles, and is shooting 52.3% from the field with 8 rebounds, 2 steals and a block per game.
ODU will cause some problems, but Virginia Tech will be able to get past them.
Sunday, December 16th, 2007
Arizona St. 77, Xavier 55 @ Tempe, AZ
Xavier just couldn't get anything going against the Sun Devils, as they put up easily their worst performance of the year. While I could examine all the specific, nitty-gritty details, the fact is that Arizona St. shot the lights out at 60% from the field and 53% from 3, while Xavier couldn't hit a thing, going only 19-62 from the field and 21% from 3. Arizona St. also got to the line 22 times on just 42 FGAs, suggesting that they were either fouled or open, with little middle ground. Other than this huge shooting disparity, both teams played about average in all the other facets of the game.
Player of the Game: AZST FR G Ty Abbott, 7-10 FG, 5-8 3, 5 Rbs, 2 Stls, 19 Pts
Game of the Night:
Florida St. had been a good three point defending team until last night, were it all fell apart for them, as the Bulldogs hit 11-26 from behind the arc, and shot 52% from the floor in general. They also were unable to affect the Butler ball control too much, failing to create turnovers. The fact the game was close was mostly due to the ability of the Seminoles to dominate the defensive glass, allowing just 3 offensive boards all night. The Bulldogs' defence wasn't spectacular, but it didn't need to be. Florida St. shot 54% inside, but just 29% from outside, and committed too many turnovers to be able to recover from that poor shooting.
Isiah Swann struggled for Florida, hitting only 3-8 shots, though he did manage to get 4 assists and 3 steals. Mike Green was one of Butler's best players, shooting 5-10, making 10 of 11 FTs, and getting 6 rebounds, though his team high 5 turnovers did hurt. The player of the game, though, was clearly A.J. Graves, as he shot 7-16 from behind the arc on his way to a game high 25 points.
Top 25 teams:
#4 Texas 96, Texas St. 81 @ Austin, TX
Arizona St. 77, #7 Xavier 55 @ Tempe, AZ
#10 Butler 79, #19 Florida St. 68 @ Indianapolis, IN
#11 Kansas 88, Ohio 51 @ Lawrence, KS
#12 Pittsburgh 85, Oklahoma St. 68 @ Pittsburgh, PA
#14 Michigan St. 79, IUPU Fort Wayne 57 @ Lansing, MI
Nebraska 88, #15 Oregon 79 @ Lincoln, NE
#17 West Virginia 86, MD Baltimore County 62 @ Morgantown, WV
#18 Memphis 65, Middle Tennessee 41 @ Nashville, TN
#20 Georgetown 110, Radford 51 @ Washington, DC
#22 Florida 52, Georgia Southern 49 @ Jacksonville, FL
#24 Valparaiso 90, Chicago St. 61 @ Valparaiso, IN
So Xavier, Florida St. and Oregon all drop, while others maintain their rankings. I was surprised how easily Kansas took out Ohio. St. Louis, Tennessee, UAB and Utah were some other notable winners.
Saturday, December 15th, 2007
A lot of games today during a mid-exam break, with the best of the day featuring the #19 Florida St. Seminoles travelling to face #10 Butler. Florida St. are trying to avoid their third loss, while Butler are potentially on the verge of a two-game losing streak. This game will be a strength-to-strength faceoff, as the Butler offense, one of the best (and slowest) in the nation, faces a top calibre Florida St. defence. Butler are excellent shooters (28th eFG%), driven by their 41% 3 point shooting and their incredible frequency of taking them (3rd). However, they are also very strong at avoiding turnovers (14th), due to the slow, deliberate, intelligent nature of their play. It will be interesting to see how the Seminoles deal with the Butler attack, as they are among the nation's best defenders of the three-point shot (7th), and are solid at forcing turnovers (83rd). One area where Butler are weak is in getting to the line (281st), and I wouldn't expect Florida St. to do them any favours there (15th). The Florida St. offence and the Butler defence are more middling stories. Florida St. are solid shooters (67th), and make a lot of foul shots (79.3%), but turn the ball over a little too much (209th). Butler struggles with interior defence (240th), but is above average in turnovers, rebounding, fouling and perimeter defence.
Florida St.'s most important player and top scorer is senior guard Isaiah Swann. Swann is a 51% shooter from the field and a 49% shooter from 3, while at the same time hitting 97% of his free throws (29-30). He manages to pull down 4.5 boards and dish out 4 assists a game also, and for Florida St. to win he must be on good form. Butler boast 4 double-digit scorers who all average more than 40% from behind the arc. Senior guard Mike Green is one of them, a 43% shooter overall and 44% from 3. However, the real key to Green's game is his rebounds and assists, as he averages 5 of each a game, both numbers placing him amonf the top on his team. He also manages to force a steal a game, and commits relatively few turnovers, with a 2.3:1 ratio.
My prediction is that Florida St. will defend their home turf by causing the Bulldogs trouble from behind the arc.
Other good games include Arkansas travelling to Oklahoma, Oregon in Nebraska, Missouri St. against Utah, and Western Kentucky facing Tennessee.
Saturday, December 15th, 2007
Drake 56, Iowa 51, @ Iowa City, IA
Drake was ahead by double digits late in the first half, but Iowa surged back in the second, taking the lead about halfway through before the Bulldogs managed to muster enough offence to get by them. I suggested that Drake would take advantage of the Iowa offence not through a low shooting percentage, but through forcing turnovers, and that definitely happened, with Iowa committing 16 on less than 60 possessions, while shooting significantly better than the Bulldogs (still only 42%). The Hawkeyes struggled on the offensive glass also, further limiting their opportunites to take shots, and were unable to get to the line even once all night. This was only the second game all year where a team went 0-0 from the line, and this was the first one at home. Drake's shooting abandoned them last night, as they hit only 35% from the field and 30% from three, but getting to the line 17 times, committing only 10 turnovers, and dominating the offensive glass, where Iowa had been solid, was enough to make up for these shortcomings.
Drake's Bret Heemskerk had little effect on the game, getting 5 boards, but putting up only a single shot in 17 minutes. Meanwhile, Kurt Looby had a pretty decent game when you consider he had only 2 points in 24 minutes. He shot a sad 1-5, but had 7 boards, 3 assists and 2 of the 3 steals that Iowa generated all night.
The man of the game was Drake F Jonathan Cox. While he shot just 3-9, he was also 3-4 from the line, and pulled down 10 rebounds to go with 10 points in a skin-of-your-teeth double-double.
Friday, December 14th, 2007
#14 (20): Michigan St. (8-1), 2155.9
Michigan St. travelled to Utah to face BYU and came up with a great 7 point win, pushing them into the top 15 in the nation. The Spartans are the lone bright spot in the Big Ten, and their game against Texas in a couple of weeks may be one of the best marquee games of the month. They'll play a couple of times this week, perhaps enough to get them into the top 10.
Last week: W v. #34 Brigham Young (N) 68-61
This week: S v. #242 IUPU-Fort Wayne, W v. #203 San Jose St.
#13 (25): Mississippi (8-0), 2158.5
They may not be getting a ton of respect from the national polls, but they pulled off a couple of solid wins this week at UCF and at a neutral court against Winthrop. They'll be in Puerto Rico and get a couple of good games out of it, including a guaranteed unbeaten breaker against Clemson, next week
Last week: W @ #161 UCF 76-67, W v. #131 Winthrop (N) 76-71
This week: R v. #219 Depaul (N)
#12 (13): Pittsburgh (9-0), 2159.2
The Panthers' only game of the week was a tight one against a Washington side that are at the bottom of the Pac-10, but it was still a road game, and it was enough to move them up a spot. They've got an interesting three game set against OK St., Duke and Dayton coming up, and they'll do well to be undefeated coming through that.
Last week: W @ #197 Washington 75-74
This week: S v. #118 Oklahoma St.
#11 (11): Kansas (9-0), 2159.6
Kansas managed to easily handle a visit from DePaul, but it will be interesting to see how they do this week against Ohio and at Georgia Tech, a couple of tough games. They will have a real chance to make hay in the rankings with those games.
Last week: W v. #219 DePaul 84-66
This week: S v. #54 Ohio, T @ #134 Georgia Tech
#10 (4): Butler (8-1, 1-1), 2161.9
The Bulldogs dropped their first game of the year, but as it was a close game on the road, and they could easily drop a second and third at home to Bradley and Florida St. this week.
Last week: L @ #175 Wright St. 42-43
This week: S v. #19 Florida St., W v. #52 Bradley
#9 (5): Stanford (8-1), 2166.8
An inactive week for the Cardinal move them somewhat down, and with only three more games to conference play, it will be likely they'll drop somewhat over the next few weeks.
Last week: none
This week: W v. #104 Santa Clara
#8 (21): Miami FL (9-0), 2168.6
Miami had a couple of road wins this week, including toughing out a win against the MSSU Bulldogs, and now has a fairly easy schedule that should see them breeze into ACC play 14-0.
Last week: W @ #271 Florida International 67-53, W @ #112 Mississippi St. 64-58
This week: M v. #297 Stetson, R v. #336 North Florida
#7 (6): Xavier (8-1), 2173.0
The Musketeers get bumped as the top A10 team in the rankings, as their win over Cincinnati was not overly impressive to the system. They should be able to handle Arizona St. in Tempe, but have four more major conference tests before A-10 play.
Last week: W v. #205 Cincinnati 64-59
This week: S @ #71 Arizona St.
#6 (12): Vanderbilt (10-0), 2174.8
For the second straight week, 12 moves up to 6. The Commodores picked up a couple of pretty unimpressive wins, and should cruise until at least 14-0, though losing against UMass wouldn't be out of the question.
Last week: W v. #225 Lipscomb 90-67, @ #219 DePaul 91-85
This week: none
#5 (7): Rhode Island (10-1), 2179.7
The highest ranked one-loss team is again number 5, as the Rams got a big win at the Carrier dome by 2 points. They have three fairly easy games to wrap up their non-conference schedule, but A-10 play will be a tough grind.
Last week: W @ #102 Syracuse 91-89
This week: none
#4 (8): Texas (9-0), 2185.0
The Longhorns banked an easy 26 point road win at Rice, and continue their run against some weaker opposition this week, warming up for battles with Michigan St. and Wisconsin closer to the end of the year.
Last week: W @ #295 Rice 80-54
This week: S v. #157 Texas St., T v. #92 Oral Roberts
#3 (1): North Carolina (8-0), 2193.6
UNC took the week off, and dropped two places for it, though they are clearly off the front of the pack with the other members of the top 3, who are closely bunched together. A Big East road test, but not a good one, awaits this week.
Last week: none
This week: U @ #109 Rutgers, W v. #245 Nicholls St.
#2 (2): Washington St. (9-0), 2195.9
The Cougars played only a single game, but won handily, and now have only 3 easy wins until conference play.
Last week: W v. #125 Portland St. 72-60
This week: R v. #314 The Citadel
#1 (3): Duke (9-0), 2196.5
Duke eased by Michigan, but have a tough game this week against Pitt that seems like it will be an unbeaten breaker. Expect Duke to end non-conference play 13-0 if they win that game.
Last week: W v. #214 Michigan 95-67
This week: M v. #151 Albany, R v. #12 Pittsburgh (N)
Friday, December 14th, 2007
#25 (NR): Indiana (8-1), 2138.0
The Hoosiers are ranked for the first time this year, and other than a neutral court pounding by Xavier, they have looked very good. Decisive wins over Kentucky and at Southern Illinois, and a good win against Georgia Tech have moved them to their current ranking. They have no serious challenges until conference play starts, so they will likely start as the #2 team in the Big Ten.
Last week: W v. #144 Kentucky 70-51
This week: S v. #254 Western Carolina
#24 (NR): Gonzaga (8-2), 2138.4
After a week out, the Zags step back into the rankings, as one of only three two-loss teams in the top 25. Their Texas Tech loss doesn't look good, but losing to Washington St. by 4 isn't bad. Since they also have a substantial road-and-neutral component to their schedule as well, the definitely deserve to be top 25. Their wins over UConn and St. Joe's seem like they aren't as valuable now as they were when they happened, but we'll see how those teams end up in their leagues. The decisive home win over CS Northridge was impressive. They'll get further chances to prove themselves against Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and Georgia over the next few weeks.
Last week: W v. #85 Cal St. Northridge 85-59
This week: M v. #142 Northern Colorado, R v. #44 Oklahoma (N)
#23 (NR): Valparaiso (9-1, 2-0), 2139.5
The Crusaders' only loss of the year was a very respectable one at Vanderbilt, and while they don't have any really impressive wins, they do have a 2-0 start to Horizon play, including a