November
Friday, November 30th, 2007
Tonight’s game of the night features #7 Washington St. (6-0) travelling to #27 Baylor (5-0). Washington St. play a very slow tempo, but have among the better offenses and defences in the country so far. Notably, they hold on to the ball extremely well (12th), and get to the line very well (3rd). They are also excellent on the offensive glass (15th). Baylor’s strengths are their interior defence (16th), and are also excellent three point shooters (20th). It will be interesting to see how a team that plays so much inside deals with a strong defending side.
Friday, November 30th, 2007
#14: Oregon (6-1), 2148.6
Another one-loss Pac-10 team whose loss hurts less than one would think. Started the year by pounding on weaklings at home, but travelling to Portland and crushing them was a good boost. The St. Mary's loss didn't put them too far back, though it did drop them from the top 10. The road win at Kansas St., even in overtime, does a lot to help the profile.
#13: Florida St. (6-2), 2150.2
The only multi-loss team in the top 25, and it's easy to see why. The two losses may have been against less than stellar competition, but they were both on neutral floors, by a combined score of 4 points. There's simply not much damage to a team's rating from losses that are so marginal, though it does not bode well for this team's ability to seize on what few chances it will get in the ACC. Beating Florida, even a down Florida in Gainesville by 14 more than rubbed out the effect of the two losses.
#12: Xavier (5-1), 2153.0
Warning! Here begins the reign of the highly overrated Atlantic 10 teams. Xavier may actually have the most impressive profile of the three A-10 teams ranked in the top 12, despite the fact it is the lowest. As always, a two point road loss has little effect on a rating. Two large neutral court wins - especially against Indiana then do a great job of further raising Xavier into the national elite. The Musketeers will have a load of chances to change their national standing with games against Belmont, Creighton, Arizona St and Tennessee this month.
#11: Rhode Island (7-1), 2155.7
This is what you get when you go play a tournament in a far-off neutral venue and end up winning out against a series of mediocre teams. A road loss to a top-50 Boston College team is not really a drag on the rating, so the wins over the likes of South Florida and UAB end up boosting the Rams more in this rating than in public opinion. It'll be interesting to see them travel to the Carrier Dome, especially with UMass proving victorious there already.
#10: Memphis (6-0), 2157.0
These rankings will like Memphis, so long as they do their job in C-USA. Manhandling Oklahoma and Connecticut on neutral floors sealed their spot in the top 10. Nothing of note has happened since then, but with some great looking games coming up, the Tigers definitely seem to be meeting their national poll potential of a top 5 team.
#9: Texas A&M (7-0), 2163.5
A long gap between the Aggies and Memphis, but a deserved one. Beating UTEP at home was not as easy as it seemed, and two huge wins over power conference opponents in New York furthered A&M's top 10 credentials. Even though it's a home game, the Alabama win was nice too.
#8: UCLA (7-0), 2164.7
The Bruins may be #1 in the polls, but haven't got quite that far here. Beating Maryland soundly and Michigan St. by a reasonable margin moved them up to this point, and a 23-point home win over George Washington was a pretty good result too. As mentioned below, their game with Texas will be a spectacular one.
#7: Washington St. (6-0), 2166.0
The Cougars have yet to take a wrong step to this point, and so there is not much to say. The closest margin they've had was 9, and with three semi-neutral and a road win, the profile is really strong. This is another team with some great opportunities to clearly put themselves up to the top of the nation with games against Gonzaga and Baylor.
#6: New Mexico (7-0), 2166.4
This looks like a bit of a dummy ranking. The win at Colorado is the only really decent win of the year, the rest are just wins by large margins at home. It this team can survive a trip to Mississippi, I'll have a lot more respect for them. Beating Hawaii by 28 was also a good win, but this team will be interesting to watch.
#5: Southern California (6-1), 2167.2
The highest ranked Pac-10 and highest ranked one-loss team, I really can't put the Mercer loss in any better context than Ken Pomeroy does here, and the rest of their resume looks really good. They crushed the Citadel on their home floor, and gave South Carolina a pretty good smacking around also. While their first two games in Anaheim weren't too inspiring, the utter destruction they brought on Southern Illinois was one of the best performances I've seen to this point. The Oklahoma win was nothing to sneeze at either, putting the Trojans into the Top 5.
#4: North Carolina (6-0), 2172.5
While the initial win against Davidson wasn't too impressive, they've really picked it up from there. Double digit wins over BYU and Old Dominion in Las Vegas are the kind of wins that are critical to building a top 5 team. The schellaking they gave Ohio St. was also a big result, even after the Buckeyes were beaten by A&M.
#3: Butler (7-0), 2173.6
Now a couple of mid-major teams take over. Butler are a really fascinating team with a great record, especially considering they've played just once at home. Double-digit wins on the road over Ball St. and Evansville but Butler near the top, and the wins over Michigan and Texas Tech on a neutral floor in Alaska are also really impressive.
#2: Duquesne (5-0), 2177.5
Yes, Duquesne. This is a team that is strongly benifiting from the margin of victory part of the rankings. Consider their first two games were won by a total of 100 points, and both were against D1 opposition, instantly making Duquesne an top class team. Two double-digit road wins over Rice and Oakland only furthered their rating. It'll be fascinating to see how these guys stack up against Pittsburgh and West Virginia, provided they survive a bit of a sleeper game at Des Moines against Cal St. Northridge.
#1: Duke (7-0), 2207.1
The Blue Devils are a mile ahead of the competition, and based on their performances to date, I'm not surprised. The great performances in Hawaii, especially the Illinois win, were #1 quality, and they didn't let up at all once they got back to Durham. The 24-point win over Wisconsin was perhaps the most impressive of all results, as Wisconsin were well within the top 10 at the time of the game.
Friday, November 30th, 2007
Hi, and welcome to the first Blog entry for my College Basketball Elo Ratings. I'm hoping to have some regular weekly features, including a quick weekly run through the top 25 on Sundays, but as this is the inaugural post, I figured it would be good to do my Top 25 Run through right now. I'll start from the bottom and work my way up.
#25: Holy Cross (6-0), 2126.7
The Crusaders are the prime example of a team that could easily be in the top 25 of this ranking all year, if their form to date can hold in Patriot Conference play. Frankly, their wins aren't very impressive, but since they have yet to lose, nothing has moved them down. The real problem is that they don't have many good opponents left, with only a single top 100 opponent to come, with an early January trip to Maryland. Essentially, this team looks right now like it could cruise through the majority of its schedule, so it'll be interesting to see how it's ranking changes.
#24: Georgetown (4-0), 2126.9
Georgetown is a side that aren't ranked too high because of lack of opportunity. They are surely better than #24, but with only 4 games, it's tough to get a real bead on them. The Michigan win was a solid one (at the time), and going on the road to decent Ball St. and Old Dominion teams and winning is a definite boon. The Big East hasn't looked elite yet this year, but there's still a lot of time, and going through that schedule will have a huge effect on the Hoyas.
#23: Pittsburgh (6-0), 2127.0
Stay tuned for Pittsburgh - Duquesne next week, it should be fascinating. The Panthers have done their job so far, earning large wins over fairly weak teams, but the fact that all of these encounters are at home greatly harms their rating. In two weeks, after they make road trips to the Dukes and to Washington, we should have a better measure of them.
#22: Louisville (4-1), 2129.2
It seems that the highest ranking Big East team is not one of the four undefeated ones, but instead the Cardinals. The absolute crushing of UNLV on a trip to Las Vegas was a huge ratings boost, and since BYU was actually higher ranked than Louisville for that loss, which was only 2 points, it doesn't hurt much. It'll be interesting to see how far they move up, as 7 of their next 8 are at home.
#21: Kansas (6-0), 2131.4
Note that the rating system doesn't know that this is Kansas, only the results achieved. It's true that they have amassed a number of blowout wins, and it is those early season wins that are responsible for Kansas' current spot. However, their only high profile win over Arizona was a home win by 4, and thus didn't shift the ratings much. Thank goodness for the Pac10-Big 12 Hardwood Series, which will finally send this team on the road to USC.
#20: Vanderbilt (6-0), 2131.7
Now, one looks at the schedule and sees that Vanderbilt haven't really beaten anyone of consequence, but the fact that they racked up some good wins over Utah St. and Bradley on neutral courts is critical. The close shave with South Alabama seems to indicate trouble, but the Jaguars have been a solid team, so this shouldn't be a bad sign for the top team in the SEC.
#19: Clemson (6-0), 2133.4
Another excellent start for the Tigers, but they are another team lacking a real marquee win that prevents them from being in the upper echelon. Crushing Gardner Webb at home at least gave them something up on Kentucky, but a game against South Carolina this weekend should be an interesting test.
#18: San Diego St. (6-1), 2135.5
This seems like a bit of a 'Huh?', but when you realize that the Aztecs have amassed a 5-1 record so far in road and neutral games, it starts to make a little more sense. This system rewards pounding teams in their own gyms, and the crushing of Fresno St. by 17 stands out in this respect. The Cal loss doesn't look great, but again, it is on the road. It seems really strange to me, though, that in a high-mid-major conference like the MWC that San Diego St. will play only 11 home games all year (with only 2 multi-game homestands)
#17: Gonzaga (6-1), 2137.4
The first 5 games don't look all that impressive, with three home wins against smaller teams (that Montana win doesn't look bad, though), a close neutral win against a solid team, and a ten point neutral beating by a team ranked well behind them. But, as always, travelling helps the ratings, and crushing Virginia Tech on a neutral floor and beating a solid St. Joe's team, even in overtime, is enough to get the Zags pretty high.
#16: Texas (6-0), 2144.7
A huge gap between 16th and 17th spots, with the Longhorns being on the happy side of that split. Benefited from great play in Newark where New Mexico St. and Tennessee looked pretty hapless against them. Their game at UCLA may be the best game of the upcoming weekend, and they also play Michigan St., Wisconsin and St. Mary's in their non-conference schedule.
#15: Stanford (7-1), 2147.9
Another example where common sense suggests that a team isn't that great, but the ratings disagree. While the Siena loss took a good chunk out of their rankings, a series of large wins over teams whose rankings were uncertain really rocketed them up. I'm not convinced the Cardinal won't be eaten alive on the road in the Pac-10, but with only 4 games in December, they'll at least be well rested.